中国能源消费导致的CO2排放量的差异特征分析

运用一种不产生残差的方法——对数平均迪氏指数法LMDI(logarithmicmeanDivisiaindex),对中国部分省份、区域能源消费导致的二氧化碳排放量进行了分解分析。将二氧化碳排放总量的变化分解成五个主要影响因素,即化石燃料的排放系数、能源消费结构、能源强度、人均GDP和人口总数。研究表明我国各省(地区)的二氧化碳排放量在1996年后呈现零(或负)增长趋势,主要影响因素是能源强度的提高;各省(地区)的二氧化碳排放量地区差异显著。因此,要在全国实现二氧化碳排放量的总体减排,应从提高能源利用效率,调整产业结构,消除地区发展的不平衡,逐步改善能源消费结构等方面考虑。

Analysis of difference features of energy-related CO2 emission in China

The aggregated energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in some representative provinces and districts in China were decomposed and analyzed using the method of LMDI (logarithmic mean Divisia index), which is a new complete decomposi- tion approach and gives no residual error. The observed changes were attributed to five different factors, that is, the coeffcient of fossil fuels, the fuel share in total energy consumption, the energy intensity, the GDP per capita and the gross population.The results reveal that the aggregated energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in various provinces (districts) in China present the trend of zero(or negative) growth since 1996.The dominating factor is the energy intensity. Notable differences exist in aggregated carbon dioxide (CO2) emission between provinces (districts) in China. It is concluded that comprehensive measures should be undertaken to reduce the aggregated emissions at the national level, including enhancing the energy utilization efficiency, adjusting the industrial structure, eliminating the regional development gap and improving the energy consumption pattern.