洞庭湖区血吸虫病疫水人水相互作用关系及防控方案研究

研究洞庭湖区血吸虫病人水相互作用关系及传染防控,是推进湖区社会经济稳定健康发展的重要保障。从水文情势、产业发展、居民行为、城乡建设四方面探讨了洞庭湖区血吸虫病疫水人水相互作用关系,并运用系统动力学模型,设置教育优先方案、生态保护优先方案和城镇化推进方案对其防控方案进行系统仿真模拟和对比分析,研究结果表明:(1)水文等生态因素对于人水接触的影响逐步减少,而社会经济因素则显得越来越重要。(2)系统动力学模型能有效展示血吸虫病各影响因素之间的关系,是研究血吸虫病防控的有效方法之一。(3)依据仿真模拟结果,城镇化推进方案是经济增长、城乡协调、环境友好的最优血防方案。

FUTURE STRATEGIES FOR SCHISTOSOMIASIS CONTROL ON THE BASIS OF INTERACTION BETWEEN PEOPLE AND INFECTED WATER IN THE DONGTING LAKE AREA

Through the research on interaction between people and infected water and schistosomiasis control, it can promote a steady and healthy social economic development in the Dongting Lake Area. Based on the hydrological conditions, industry development, residents' behavior, urban and rural construction four aspectswe discussed the interaction between people and schistosomiasis infected water in the Dongting Lake Area. By using the system dynamics model, we set up an education priority program, an ecological protection priority program and a urbanization promoting program to make the system simulation and comparison analysis. The results show as follows. (1) Eco-hydrological factors that influence the human contact with water gradually reduced, and the socio-economic factors are becoming increasingly important. (2) The system dynamics model can effectively show the relationship between various influencing factors of schistosomiasis, and it is one of the effective methods to study the prevention and controlling of schistosomiasis epidemic. (3) Based on simulation results, the urbanization promoting program is the optimal prevention and control program for economic growth, urban and rural coordination, environment-friendly development.