The effect of pollution on crime: Evidence from data on particulate matter and ozone |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Colorado State University, 1200 Center Ave. Mall, Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA;2. Department of Statistics, Colorado State University, 851 Oval Dr, Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA;3. College of Engineering, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA;4. Division of Environmental Health Sciences, University of Minnesota School of Public Health, 420 Delaware Street SE, Minneapolis, MN 55455, USA;5. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Colorado State University, 1371 Campus Delivery, Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA;1. Department of Resource Economics, University of Massachusetts-Amherst, USA;2. Department of Economics, University of Alaska-Anchorage, USA;3. Institute for State Economy, Nankai University, China;4. School of Public and Environmental Affairs, Indiana University-Bloomington, USA;1. The World Bank, United States;2. Georgetown University, United States;1. Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University, Canada;2. Environment and Natural Resources Global Practice, World Bank, United States;3. Department of Economics, University of California, Irvine and NBER, United States;1. Environmental Research Center, Duke Kunshan University, Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, No.8 Duke Avenue, Kunshan, Jiangsu 215316, China;2. The Nature Conservancy, China |
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| Abstract: | We estimate the effect of short-term air pollution exposure (PM2.5 and ozone) on several categories of crime, with a particular emphasis on aggressive behavior. To identify this relationship, we combine detailed daily data on crime, air pollution, and weather for an eight-year period across the United States. Our primary identification strategy employs extremely high dimensional fixed effects and we perform a series of robustness checks to address confounding variation between temperature and air pollution. We find a robust positive effect of increased air pollution on violent crimes, and specifically assaults, but no relationship between increases in air pollution and property crimes. The effects are present in and out of the home, at levels well below Ambient Air Pollution Standards, and PM2.5 effects are strongest at lower temperatures. The results suggest that a 10% reduction in daily PM2.5 and ozone could save $1.4 billion in crime costs per year, a previously overlooked cost associated with pollution. |
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| Keywords: | Crime Air pollution Wildfire smoke Q53 |
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