西南技术工程研究所, 重庆 400039

目的建立敦煌地区温度、相对湿度和日温差的年极值拟合模型。方法根据当地气象站台温度和相对湿度日记时值数据,连续统计若干年的三要素年极值,采用极大似然法建立各要素年极值的Gumbel模型,同时讨论值域有界类气象因素极值再现期的定义域。结果给出了敦煌地区温度、相对湿度和日温差年极值的Gumbel模型参数。结论敦煌地区各气象因素Gumbel模型位置参数和尺度参数,温度极大值分别为35.193,1.072℃,温度极小值分别为-20.085,1.945℃,相对湿度极大值为95.254%,2.471%,相对湿度极小值为5.837%,1.505%,日温差极大值为20.676,0.777℃,日温差极小值为1.398,0.593℃;相对湿度极大值、相对湿度极小值和日温差极小值的再现期定义域分别为6.3,47和10年。

Study on Extreme Characteristics of Temperature, Humidity and Daily Temperature Difference in Dunhuang

Objective To establish an annual extreme fitting model of temperature,relative humidity and daily temperature difference in Dunhuang area. Methods According to the daily data of temperature and relative humidity at the local meteorological station,we statistically analyzed the annual extreme value of three elements. Then we established the elements of the annual extreme value Gumbel model by the likelihood method. And we discussed a bounded domain of meteorological elements in the extreme return period domain at the same time. Results We presented the annual extreme Gumbel model parameters of the temperature,relative humidity and daily temperature difference in Dunhuang area. Conclusion The Gumbel model of meteorological factors in Dunhuang area gave the location parameter and scale parameter. The maximal temperature was 35. 193,1. 072 ℃,and the minimal temperature was- 20. 085,1. 945 ℃. The maximal relative humidity was 95. 254,2. 471%,and the minimal relative humidity was 5. 837,1. 505%. The maximal daily temperature difference value was 20. 676,0. 777 ℃,and the minimal daily temperature difference value was 1. 398,0. 593 ℃. The return periods of the maximal relative humidity,the minimal relative humidity and the minimal daily temperature difference value were 6. 3 years,47 years and 10 years,respectively.