天津市突发事故条件下大气污染的应急模拟

基于数值天气预报模式和自动气象站观测资料,采用随机游走粒子-烟团模式对天津市突发事故条件进行应急示踪模拟试验.结果表明,模式能在10min内给出计算结果,并能较好地模拟大气突发事故的大气扩散过程,粒子的散布和积分浓度的分布均能反映出大气突发事故污染物扩散路径和影响范围的变化,可以作为事故应急决策系统的大气扩散模块,为早期应急和后果评价提供更接近实际的信息.

Numerical simulation of emergency response to atmospheric pollution accident in Tianjin

Based on the numerical weather prediction model and automatic weather station data, random-walk particle-puff model was used to simulate the emergency response to atmospheric accident. The model for atmospheric diffusion could simulate the atmospheric diffusion in case of emergency accident occurred in 10min, both distribution of the particle and concentration calculated by the model could describe the variation of the diffusion route and affected area. Random walk model, as atmospheric diffusion module of the emergency accident decision support system, could provide more actual information for early emergency and consequence assessment.