基于正交试验响应面法的烟气层概率分布计算

为计算随机参数下火灾烟气层温度和厚度的概率分布，该文提出了基于正交试验响应面的可靠度计算方法。通过正交试验表确定分析计算参数组，并借助火灾动力学分析软件计算不同参数组下烟气层的温度和厚度响应，进一步拟合出输入参数和输出参数的响应面函数，在此基础上结合验算点法计算烟气层温度和厚度的概率分布，算例分析表明该方法具有计算精度高、计算量小的特点。

Probability estimation of smoke layer parameters by the orthogonal test based response surface method

An orthogonal test based response surface method is suggested in this paper to determine the probability distribution of smoke layer temperatures and heights in a burning building. The experiment parameter sets are determined by orthogonal test design and for each parameter sets, the temperatures and heights of the smoke layer are calculated by CFAST. Based on the calculations, the response surface function about input parameters and output parameters is determined by linear regression. Then the check point method in reliability theory is introduced to calculate the probability distribution of the smoke temperatures and smoke heights. A case study is carried out and the results show that proposed method can achieve more precise resuits but cost less calculation efforts.