| Abstract: | The methods of using growth curves in the economic field to forecast consumption and market developments have been based on the ‘black box’ principle in most of the published cases and have therefore failed to produce reliable results in the medium and long term. This paper introduces an engineering approach for forecasting long-term trends pertaining to the use of processed raw materials. The forecasting is performed by means of a newly developed growth model. To prove the usefulness and validity of the model presented, long-term trends have been calculated for various processed raw materials, such as nickel, platinum and steel. |
