区域经济-污染-环境三维评价模型的构建与应用

为深入分析区域环境经济系统变化,在分析经济发展、环境污染、环境质量相互关系的理论基础上,构建了经济发展水平指数、环境污染指数、环境质量指数的三维立方体评价模型,划分了8个块区,分别表达低污染-低质量-低经济发展水平等8种状态,提出了模型的状态评价、发展阶段划分、演变趋势分析功能,以及相对含义、绝对含义评价途径和计算公式.以宁夏银川市为例检验模型,以广州市为目标参照区域进行了相对含义评价,该市1996~2010年内中长时段处于高污染-低质量-低经济发展水平状态,2007年以后转入了高污染-高质量-低经济发展水平,目前处于环境质量趋好、污染压力大、徘徊于环境低质量与高质量"拐点"附近状态.绝对含义评价结果:1996~2010年,该市始终处于高污染-低质量-低经济发展水平.研究表明,因目标参照区域选择和相关国家标准值等主要参数不同,使模型评价具有一定的弹性范围,无量纲的数据处理增强了指数耦合性,评价结果的空间可视化为环境管理决策提供了直接依据,改善了多指标模型评价结果抽象、数据口径不匹配、发展阶段划分不明确等问题,验证了该模型的应用合理性与适应性.

Construction and Application of Economy-Pollution-Environment Three-Dimensional Evaluation Model for District

For deep analysis on the regional environmental economic system, the paper analyzes the mutual relation of regional economy development, environmental quality, environmental pollution, and builds the theoretical basis. Then, the economy-pollution-environment quality three-dimensional coupling evaluation model for district is constructed. It includes economic development level index, environmental pollution index, and environmental quality index. The model is a cube, which has spatialization and visualization characteristics. The model includes 8 sub cubes, which expresses 8 types of state, e. g. low pollution-inferior quality-low level of economic development etc. The model can be used to evaluate the status of region, divide development phase, analyze evolution trend etc. It has two ways including relative meaning evaluation(RME) and absolute meaning evaluation(AME). Based on the model, Yinchuan City in the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region is used as an example for the empirical study. Using RME, compared with Guangzhou city,The result shows that the Yinchuan City has been a high pollution-low quality-low level of economic development state for a long period during 1996-2010. After 2007, the state changed to a high pollution-high quality-low level of economic development. Now, the environmental quality of Yinchuan city gets better, but pollutant discharge pressure is high, and tends to be the break point of high environment quality and low environment. With AME, using national standard,the Yinchuan City remains a high pollution-low quality-low level of economic development state during 1996-2010. Empirical research verifies that different target reference areas and relevant national standards have different main parameters, the evaluating result has an flexible range. The dimensionless data enhances the coupling of index. The data position in model increases the visibility to the environmental management decisions. The model improves mismatches of calculated data size, time asymmetry of spatial data, verification of the former multi-target coupling model.