可再生能源电价补贴的大气环境效益分析

可再生能源的电价补贴是一项旨在加速推进可再生能源广泛应用的政策机制,对中国能源结构调整(降低煤电比例)、改善大气环境具有重要的现实意义。鉴此,本文将可再生能源发电带来的空气污染物(CO_2、SO_2、NO_X和PM_(2.5))排放的减少作为衡量大气环境质量改善的效益指标,利用2012年中国投入产出表建立包含温室气体、污染气体和颗粒物模块的可计算一般均衡模型,从总量和行业的视角量化研究了实施可再生能源电价补贴政策对改善大气环境的积极作用,考察了可再生能源发电补贴辅以硫税、硫税及碳税这两种冲击的情景。研究表明:可再生能源电价补贴减少了温室气体、污染气体的总排放量和颗粒物浓度,在补贴的基础上辅以硫税不仅可以有效地增进大气环境福利效益,而且还能抵消征税对经济增长的负面效应;可再生能源电价补贴使清洁能源发电对火电产生替代效应,各个行业排放的CO_2、SO_2和NO_X均下降;但这一替代效应在工业部门尤其是重工业部门相对有限,这也证明了工业部门的减排压力较于其他产业(农业部门和服务业部门)更大;补贴可促进可再生能源发电量不断提升,进而优化能源结构,这是增进大气环境效益的根本原因。上述结果意味着短期内要提高可再生能源电价附加标准,补贴与税收双管齐下以增强减排力度。而可能面临的可再生能源电价补贴资金不足问题则意味着中期内要实现补贴方式逐渐向定额补贴、绿色证书模式过渡,利用市场机制确定补贴标准;长期内需最终取消补贴政策,倒逼技术进步,推动整个可再生能源产业的可持续发展。

Analysis of feed-in tariff on atmospheric environmental benefits

Feed-in tariff is an important policy mechanism to accelerate the widespread use of renewable energy and eventually contributes to the decrease of proportion of thermal power as well as improvement of air quality.In the current paper,the abatement of CO2,SO2,NOx and PM2.5 are used as quantitative measures of air quality.Using 2012 China input-output table which includes GHG,air pollutants,and particulates modules,we built a CGE model to evaluate the effects of the implementation of feed-in tariff on air quality,from both overall and sectoral perspectives.We also examine the effects of feed-in tariff together with sulphur tax and carbon tax.Our research results show that feed-in tariff can contribute to the abatement of GHG,pollutant emissions,and the concentration of particulates.The addition of sulphur tax not only further improves the air quality,but also offsets some of the negative impacts to economic growth due to feed-in tariff.The abatement effect is smaller for heavy industries relative to agricultural and service sectors.Our results imply that using both feed-in tariff and emission taxes is a better policy option.The shortage of subsidy funds means that subsidy approach should be gradually changed to the fixed subsidy and green certificate model,and find the subsidy standard based on market in the medium-run.In the long term,we need to cancel the subsidy policy eventually,and promote the sustainable development of the entire industry by forcing technological progress.