经济增长和环境规制对雾霾的区际影响差异

为探究不同省级区域雾霾、经济增长和环境规制之间的空间关联效应,本文提出针对雾霾的引力模型空间权重矩阵,并利用该矩阵建立了空间杜宾模型,分别对全国、西部、中部和东部省区的面板数据进行了空间计量检验。实证结果显示:全国雾霾的莫兰指数值显著,且取值介于0.367—0.460之间;雾霾"重心"呈现先向东南再向西北移动的趋势,移动距离为76 557 m;雾霾的莫兰指数值为东部省区最大,西部省区最小,中部省区介于二者之间。全国的雾霾与经济增长之间呈显著的"U"型曲线,而西部、中部和东部省区则呈倒"U"型曲线,其中中部省区的曲线最为陡峭,西部省区次之,东部省区最为平缓。环境规制每增加1%,只有西部和东部的雾霾相应减少,且各自相应下降0.009和0.010个百分点。西部和东部经济增长的溢出效应均显著,而环境规制的溢出效应不显著。研究结果表明:(1)雾霾在空间上表现出集聚的特点,全国和三个区域的雾霾都存在显著的正向空间溢出效应,这种空间依赖性在时间维度上大致呈加强的趋势;雾霾的空间相关性表现为东部省区最强,西部省区紧随其后,中部省区最低。(2)西部和东部省区部分省市还未过拐点,全国意义上的环境库茨涅兹假说是不存在的,或者是至少还未出现。(3)西部和东部环境规制效果较为理想,而中部省区的环境规制效果不佳;从全国总体来看,当前的环境规制整体上对雾霾并未起到有效的抑制作用。(4)东西部省区和中部省区经济增长对雾霾溢出效应分别表现为正向和反向;环境规制对雾霾的溢出效应并不显著。建议加强对雾霾的区域协同治理,重点推进西部和东部省区经济结构的转型升级,调整和完善西部、中部和东部省区的环境规制政策。

Study on the regional difference in the relationship among haze pollution,economic growth and environmental regulation from the perspective of spatial gravitational effect

In order to explore spatial correlation among haze pollution,economic growth and environmental regulation,the spatial weight matrix based on Gravity Model for haze pollution was innovatively put forward in this paper.In terms of the spatial weight matrix,this paper established the Spatial Durbin Model,which was used to examine spatial econometrics of haze pollution based on the panel data of the national,western,central and eastern provinces in China.The empirical results show that:The national haze pollution's Moran Index value was between O.367 and 0.460.The gravity center of haze pollution firstly moved to the southeast,and then to the northwest,with moving distance of 76 557 m.The biggest Moran Index occurred in the eastern provinces.However,the Moran Index in the central provinces was small.The change of correlation between haze pollution and economic growth at the national level presents a'U'curve,while that correlation in the western,central and eastern provinces showed the characteristic of inverted 'U'curve.Among them,the curve of the central regions was steepest,followed by the western provinces.However,the eastern provinces were the most gentle.Every 1％ increase in environmental regulation in the western and eastern regions caused the haze pollution to decline 0.009％ and 0.010％,respectively.The spillover effects of economic growth in all three regions were prominent,while the spillover effects of environmental regulation were not significant.The results showed that:①Haze pollution showed spatial clustering characteristic,and there was a significant positive spatial spillover effect at national level and three regional levels.The spatial dependence was strengthened year by year;the spatial correlation of haze pollution was the strongest in the eastern provinces,followed by the western provinces and the weakest in the central provinces.②Some western and eastern provinces had not yet reached an inflection point.The Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis in China did not exist,or at least not appear.③The effect of environmental regulation in the western and eastern regions was comparatively effective,while the environmental regulation effect in the central regions was poor.However,the current environmental regulation did not suppress haze pollution effectively at the national level.④The economic growth of eastem and western provinces had positive effects on the spillover effects,while the central provinces were the opposite.The spillover effect of environmental regulation on haze pollution was not significant.The government should strengthen the regional cooperative governance of haze pollution,focus on promoting the transformation and upgrading the economic structure of the western and eastern regions' economic structure.Furthermore,adjusting and improving the environmental regulation policies of the western,central and eastern provinces in China is also essential.