多维度城镇化视角下的碳排放影响因素研究——基于中国省域数据的空间杜宾面板模型

城镇化与碳排放是当代中国经济社会发展的两大特征,中国的新型城镇化不仅要求实现人口、土地、经济城镇化的协调统一,还要求在城镇化的进程中注重生态环境的保护,实现绿色低碳发展。因此,从不同维度城镇化视角探讨碳排放的影响因素并对比其差异具有重要的理论与现实意义。本文根据2008—2014年中国30个省份的面板数据测算了各省的碳排放量,运用熵权法对表征土地城镇化、经济城镇化的相关指标进行了整组变量压缩,然后运用ESDA方法分析了省域间碳排放的空间相关性,基于STIRPAT模型分别构建了人口城镇化、土地城镇化、经济城镇化三个维度下的碳排放影响因子空间杜宾面板模型并进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,各省份的碳排放存在正的空间相关性,并且经济因素助长了这种空间相关性。在各城镇化维度下,人口规模、人均可支配收入、碳强度对本省份及相邻省份的碳排放均具有显著的影响,其中:人口规模是最主要的影响因素;人均可支配收入具有显著的正向作用,中国正处于环境库兹涅茨曲线的上升阶段;在经济水平相近的情况下,各省份间的碳排放具有"逐顶竞争"的特征。不同城镇化维度下,各因素对碳排放的影响存在明显的差异:从直接效应来看,经济城镇化维度下各影响因素的弹性系数最大,土地城镇化维度下的人口规模对碳排放的影响最小;从反馈效应来看,在人口城镇化维度下省份间碳排放的"逐顶竞争"特征最为明显;从间接效应来看,经济城镇化维度下的人均可支配收入对相邻省份的碳排放量存在显著的负向影响。

A study on the influencing factors of carbon emissions from the perspective of multi-dimensional urbanization:based on the spatial Dubin panel model of China provinces

Urbanization and carbon emissions are the two major characteristics of economic and social development in China.China's new urbanization not only requires the harmonization of population,land and economic urbanization,but also requires the emphasis on the protection of the ecological environment in the process of urbanization and the realization of green low-carbon development.Therefore,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to explore the factors of carbon emissions from different dimensions of urbanization and compare the differences.Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2008 to 2014,the carbon emissions of each province were calculated.Entropy method was used to compress the relevant indexes which characterize land urbanization and economic urbanization,and then ESDA was used to analyze the interdependence of carbon emissions between provinces.Based on the STIRPAT model,the spatial Durbin panel date model of urbanization,land urbanization and economic urbanization was constructed and analyzed empirically.The results show that there are positively spatial correlations between carbon emissions in different provinces,and economic factors contribute to this spatial correlation.Under each dimension of urbanization,population size,per capita disposable income,and carbon intensity have significant positive effects to carbon emission in one's own province and its neighboring provinces,of which the population size is the most important factor.The per capita disposable income has a significantly positive effect on carbon emissions and is in the rising stage of the environmental Kuznets curve.In the case of similar economic level,the carbon emissions of each province have the characteristics of'top-to-top competition'.Under different urbanization dimensions,the impact of each factor on carbon emissions is obviously different;However,from the point of direct effect.However in the dimensions of land urbanization,population size has the smallest impact on carbon emissions.From the point of feedback effect,in the dimension of population urbanization,the characteristics of'top-to-top competition'among provinces are the most obvious.From the point of indirect effect,per capita disposable income in the urbanization dimension of the economy has a significantly negative impact on the carbon emissions of neighboring provinces.