多因素驱动下的中国城市环境效应分析——基于285个地级及以上城市面板数据

城市化是深刻影响经济社会发展的一项重大社会工程,也是在世界范围内具有一定普遍规律的发展现象,我国多年来快速的城市化取得了积极成效,也积累了严重的环境问题。本研究从经济发展与环境压力的国内外研究出发,以285个地级及以上城市为研究对象,利用调整过的STIRPAT模型,分析这些城市2004—2013年工业SO_2排放强度、工业废水排放强度和工业烟(粉)尘排放强度的驱动因素,结果显示:(1)产业结构调整会产生显著的环境效应,第二产业产值占比对工业污染物排放强度有显著的拉动作用,虽然现阶段我国大多数城市的产业结构向合理化趋势发展,但部分城市仍过分倚重第二产业对经济的拉动,资源消耗大、环境污染严重;(2)城市人口密度与空间规模扩张,使不同规模、不同经济发展水平的城市间出现了"污染转移"现象;(3)我国城市成为外资企业"污染避难所"的问题并不突出,外资企业对工业烟(粉)尘排放相关产业部门降低排放强度有显著的正环境效应;(4)在一定的城市规模区间内,城市规模对工业污染物排放强度有显著影响;(5)285个城市中,大多数城市的工业污染物排放强度的EKC曲线拐点可能已经到来且处于曲线下降阶段,污染反弹的可能性不大,但污染物排放强度拐点的到来并不意味着环境质量改善的拐点也到来。因此,需要正确认识和处理好经济发展与环境保护之间的关系,为城市化发展滞后地区留足发展的生态资本,通过强化环保总体规划、明确生态红线和城市增长边界,合理布局城市产业结构、提高城市土地集约化程度引进绿色资本、实施差异化评估考核等方式推动城市绿色可持续发展。

Analysis on urban environmental effect driven by multi-factors of China:based on panel data of 285 prefecture level cities

Urbanization is a major social project which has a profound impact on economic and social development,and it is also a universal rule on the whole world.The rapid urbanization has achieved positive results over the years but also accumulated some serious environmental problems in China.This paper starts the study from the domestic and foreign research on economic development and environmental pressure,taking 285 cities as objects,using adjusted STIRPAT model,analyzing the driven factors of industrial sulfur dioxide emission intensity,the industrial wastewater discharge intensity and the industrial smoke (powder)dust emission intensity in these cities from 2004 to 2013 in China.The results show that:①The adjustment of industrial structure has a significant environmental effect on pollutant emission intensity.This study shows that the variable of second industry output accounted for total GDP has a significant pull effect on industrial pollutant emission intensity.Although there shows a rational trend for the development of industrial structure in most cities,some cities which have consumed excessive resources and resulted serious environmental problems still pull heavily on the secondary industry to the economy.②With the increase of population density and the expansion of space,a phenomenon called ‘pollution transfer'occurred among different scale and different economic development cities.③In China,the problem of ‘pollution heaven'is not outstanding,foreign enterprises have significant positive environmental effects on the industrial smoke (powder) dust related industries.④In a certain range of city scale,the variable of city scale has a significant effect on the industrial pollutant emission intensity.⑤For most cities,the turning point of Environmental Kuznets Curve for the industrial pollutant emissions may have arrived and have been stayed at the stage of declining with small possibilities to rebound.But it's worth noting that the arrival of turning point of pollutant emission does not mean the arrival of the turning point of environmental quality improvement.Therefore,it's necessary to correctly understand and handle the relationship between economic development and environmental protection,leaving sufficient sustainable development of ecological capital for urbanization lagging areas,strengthening the overall environmental planning,clearing the ecological red line,arranging city industrial structure rationally,introducing green capital,improving intensive land-use of cities.And take differential assessment so as to promote green and sustainable development.