环渤海地区海洋经济发展进程中的生态环境响应及其影响因素

基于海洋经济发展进程的生态环境演化模型,建立了环渤海地区海洋经济与生态环境发展水平评价指标体系,通过构建响应度模型定量分析2004至2014年环渤海地区海洋经济发展的海洋生态环境响应变化及影响因素,得出以下结论:(1)通过构建海洋经济与生态环境发展水平评价指标体系及综合评价模型进行测算发现,环渤海地区海洋经济发展综合评价值由2004年的0.135提升至2014年的0.850,表明环渤海地区海洋经济发展水平不断提高,并呈现出良好的发展势头;海洋生态环境发展综合评价值先由2004年的0.647降至2012年的0.335,后又缓慢回升至2014年的0.374,表明环渤海地区海洋生态环境水平虽在2012至2014年间略有好转,但总体仍呈波动下降趋势。(2)通过构建海洋生态环境响应度模型进行测算发现,环渤海地区海洋经济发展的生态环境响应指数由2004年的-0.073下降至2012年的-0.576,而后又增大至2014年的-0.297,表明环渤海地区海洋经济发展对生态环境演变产生了"胁迫"影响,总体呈现出由"弱胁迫"向"强胁迫"变化的态势,但胁迫程度在2012至2014年间有所缓和。(3)通过多元回归分析发现,与海洋生态环境响应指数的偏回归系数较高的3个自变量分别为海洋科技课题成果应用数量、海域利用效率、单位面积工业废水排放达标量,且海域利用效率的回归系数最高为0.749。表明海域利用效率是影响环渤海地区海洋生态环境响应演变的主要因素,此外,海洋科技发展水平的提高以及海洋污染治理力度加强等因素也对胁迫程度的减小具有一定的推动作用。

Ecological environment response to marine economy development and the influence factors in Bohai Bay Rim Area

Based on the model of ecological environment evolution in the process of the economic development,this paper constructed the evaluation system of marine economy and ecological environment of Bohai Bay Rim Area.And then,this paper analyzed the evolution of ecological environment response to marine economy development of Bohai Bay Rim Area by building response index model.At last,this paper found the causes of response index's change.The results were shown as follows:first,on the whole,the comprehensive evaluation value of marine economic development was up to 0.850 from 0.135 during 2004 to 2014.It indicated that the level of marine economic development of Bohai Bay Rim Area was rising and presented a good momentum.The comprehensive evaluation value of marine ecological environment was down to 0.335 from 0.647 firstly during 2004 to 2012,and then up to 0.374 after two years.It showed that the level of marine ecological environment presented a fluctuanfly downward trend,although there was a slight rise in the past two years.Second,the response index of marine ecological environment was down to-0.576 from-0.073 during 2004 to 2012 firstly,and then up to-0.297.It indicates that the development of marine economy put obvious ‘ coercive’ effect on the ecological environment,and the variation trend was from weak to strong.But the degree of the effect was appeared to be easing in recent two years.Third,there are three independent variables with high partial regression coefficient by multiple regression analysis,including the quantity of applicable project of marine science and technology,the efficiency of ocean development,and the emission of standard industrial waste water per unit area.It indicates that the main factor affecting response evolution of marine ecological environment is the efficiency of ocean development.In addition,the improvement of marine science and technology and the more efforts on marine pollution control are also positive roles in reducing the degree of coercive influence.