中国深度脱碳路径及政策分析

《巴黎协定》开启了全球气候治理的新进程,进一步明确了全球应对气候变化的紧迫性和目标要求。对中国来说,如何尽快推动经济增长和碳排放的脱钩,不仅是实现应对气候变化中长期战略目标的核心任务,更是保障经济社会可持续发展的必然要求。为此,本文基于中国经济、社会、能源和重要的终端能源消费行业历史发展趋势的分析,通过"自下而上"的模型方法考察了能源、工业、建筑、交通等行业和领域的深度碳减排潜力,并基于详细的技术分析提出了中国中长期的深度脱碳路径。研究表明,在深度脱碳路径下,中国将顺利完成国家自主贡献提出的2030年左右碳排放达峰和碳强度较2005年下降60%—65%的目标;此后非化石能源发展进一步加速,到2050年非化石能源在一次能源中占比达到44%左右,工业、建筑、交通等终端耗能行业的低碳转型进一步加速,2050年碳排放回落至2005年前水平,碳强度较2005年下降90%以上。为实现深度脱碳,本文从强化碳排放总量约束和相关制度规范建设、完善产业低碳发展激励政策、加强相关市场机制作用、倡导低碳生活和消费等四方面提出了相应的政策建议,以供决策者参考。

Pathway and policy analysis to China's deep decarbonization

The Paris Agreement marks the beginning of a new era in the global response to climate change,which further clarifies the long term goal and underlines the urgency addressing climate change.For China,promoting the decoupling between economic growth and carbon emissions as soon as possible is not only the core task of achieving the medium and long-term goals and strategies to address climate change,but also the inevitable requirement for ensuring the sustainable development of economy and society.For this purpose,based on the analysis of the historical trends of the economy and social development,as well as society,energy consumption and key end use sectors in China,this paper studies the deep carbon emission reduction potential of carbon emission of in energy,industry,building,and transportation and other sectors with'bottom-up'modeling analysis,and proposes a medium and long-term deep decarbonization pathway based on key technologies' mitigation potentials for China.It is found that under deep decarbonization pathway China will successfully realize the goals set in China's INDC of achieving carbon emissions peak around 2030 and lowering carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 60％ to 65％ from the 2005 level.From 2030 on,the development of non-fossil energy will further accelerate and the share of non-fossil energies in primary energy will amount to about 44％ by 2050.Combined with the acceleration of low-carbon transformation in end use sectors including industry,building and transportation,the carbon dioxide emissions in 2050 will fall to the level before 2005,and the carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will decrease by more than 90％ from the 2005 level.To ensure the realization of the deep decarbonization pathway,this paper puts forward policy recommendations from four perspectives,including intensifying the total carbon dioxide emissions cap and strengthening the related institutional systems and regulations,improving the incentive policies for industrial low-carbon development,enhancing the role of the market mechanism,and advocating low-carbon life and consumption patterns.