社会选择理论在流域跨界水资源配置冲突决策问题中的应用

本文将社会选择理论引入到流域跨界水资源配置冲突的解决研究中,从群决策的角度寻找到流域内各区域一致同意的、满足水量分配公平的流域水资源配置方案。流域水资源配置冲突问题从表面上看是资源问题,实质上却是一个典型的决策问题。作为一种具有混合特性和稀缺性的自然资源,流域稀缺水资源的分配实质上是多主体参与的涉水利益分配,而分配的核心问题是如何通过合理的群决策机制协调水资源配置冲突中不同行政区域之间的利益关系进而实现公平。本文提出基于社会选择理论的流域跨界水资源配置冲突解决框架,首先从公平性角度将流域水资源配置冲突看成一个短缺资源的配置问题,利用P、AP、CEA和CEL四种破产准则获取可行的水量分配方案集合;其次运用社会选择理论中的PV、BC、HQ、PCM和FB五种偏好聚合方法进行流域内各行政区域个体偏好聚合的群决策分析;通过破产准则与偏好聚合的结合能够实现流域水资源配置冲突群决策结果的公平,所得流域水量分配方案易于被冲突主体所接受。最后,以华北缺水地区的漳河流域跨界水资源配置冲突问题为例进行研究,并比较不同破产准则及偏好聚合方法在解决流域跨界水资源配置冲突中的应用。研究结果表明,社会选择理论与破产准则的结合在解决流域跨界水资源配置冲突问题中具有较高的实用价值。

Application of social choice theory in decision-making issues on transboundary water resource allocation conflict in river basin

This paper adopts social choice theory into the research on solving transboundary water resource allocation conflict.The aim lies in finding a unanimous water resources allocation scheme with satisfying fairness of water allocation from group decisions perspective.Even water resource allocation conflict looks superficially like an issue of resources,while it is substantively a typical decision-making problem.As one type nature resource with mixing characteristics and scarcity.The allocation of scare water resource in river basin is a distribution of water-involved benefit with multiple agents,while the key issue is how to coordinate the interest relationship among provinces in the same basin.The framework for solving transboundary water allocation conflict based on social choice theory is introduced in this paper.First,transboundary water resource allocation is treated as an allocation problem of scarce resource by using equity concept including proportional rule,adjusted proportional rule,constrained equal award rule and constrained equal loss rule.And the set of feasible allocation solutions is obtained.Second,social choice theory is applied to make group decision analysis on preferences aggregation of individual water stakeholders' preference by using plurality voting,borda count,hare quota,pairwise comparison matrix and fallback bargaining.The equity of group decision-making's results for water resource allocation conflict could be achieved by combining bankruptcy rules and preferences aggregation and the water resources allocation scheme is more easily accepted by conflict agents.Finally,an example of transboundary water resource allocation conflict in Zhanghe River Basin located in north China with water scarcity is adopted as a case study.And the application of different preferences aggregation methods in solving transboundary water resource allocation conflict is compared.The results show that the combination of social choice theory and bankruptcy rules has promising value in solving transboundary water resource allocation conflict.