京津冀PM_(2.5)的主要影响因素及内在关系研究

大气污染物的源排放是形成灰霾天气的内因,气象条件是形成灰霾天气的外因。本研究通过构建PM_(2.5)浓度的两段式分布滞后模型,结合自然环境因素及经济因素对PM_(2.5)的影响因素进行了综合分析。在第一段模型中构建了PM_(2.5)和大气污染物排放量的分布滞后模型,第二段模型中构建了不同的大气污染源对大气污染物排放量的影响因素模型。大气污染物排放源主要包括工业源、生活源、机动车源、集中式污染治理设施源。在工业源中,工业废气重度污染行业是大气污染物排放主要的贡献者;在生活源中,燃煤消费量对大气污染物排放影响很大,这也是冬季供暖期间PM_(2.5)剧增的原因;在机动车源中,尽管黄标车的保有量仅占汽车保有量的10%左右,但却占据了颗粒物排放量的绝大部分。利用京津冀代表性城市PM_(2.5)日度数据研究得出平均气温、平均风速、日照时数、平均气压、降雨量、平均相对湿度、沙尘暴等因素对PM_(2.5)浓度的负向与正向作用。研究发现,大气污染物排放量对PM_(2.5)浓度具有聚集的滞后效应,当期大气污染物排放量、滞后一期、滞后两期、滞后三期大气污染物对PM_(2.5)浓度具有显著的正向作用,且影响依次递减。构建的大气污染物排放量的污染源影响因素模型揭示一个地区煤炭消费量、工业废气重度污染行业工业增加值、黄标车保有量对该地区大气污染物排放量具有显著影响。本研究对优化能源消费结构和产业结构,减少空气污染物排放提出了对策建议。

Study on the main influencing factors and their intrinsic relations of PM2.5 in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei

Air pollutants are the internal causes of haze weather, meteorological conditions are external factors of haze weather.In this study, a two-stage distribution hysteresis model for PM2.5 concentration was established, and the influencing factors of PM2.5 were analyzed in combination with natural and economic factors.In the first stage, a distribution hysteresis model for PM2.5 concentration and air pollutants emissions was established.In the second stage, an influencing factors model for air pollutants emission was constructed.Air pollutants sources include industrial emission, life emission, motor vehicles emission, and centralized pollution facilities.In industrial emission sources, the polluting intensive industries for waste gas are the major contributors to air pollutant emissions.In the life emission sources, coal consumption greatly affected air pollutant emissions, which contributed the increase of PM2.5 concentration during winter heating season.In the motor vehicles source, although the proportion of vehicles ownership of wagons with yellow license plates is only about 10%, but they contributed a large part of particulate matters.Based on the daily data of PM2.5 of the representative cities of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, the negative and positive impacts on PM2.5 concentration of average temperature, average wind speed, sunshine hours, average air pressure, rainfall, average relative humidity, dust storm and other factors are measured.We find that the air pollutant emission has a lag effect on the accumulation of PM2.5 concentration, e.g.current period air pollutant emissions,lag one, lag two, and lag three have significant positive effects on the PM2.5 concentration, and the influencing effects are decreasing according to the lagging order.A model of influencing factors of air pollutant emission concluded that the consumption of coal, the industrial added value of waste gas polluting intensive industries, and the amount of wagons with yellow license plates do contribute a significant influence on air pollutant emission.Some countermeasures and policy recommendation to optimize energy consumption structure and industrial structure and reduce air pollutant emission are suggested in this paper.