资源型城市能耗增长因素分解及差异分析

本文以95个有代表性的资源型城市2004—2013年的数据为样本,重点关注城市经济发展、人口增长和空间扩张几个方面,考虑能耗强度、经济规模、人口密度、辖区面积四个因素,利用LMDI法对资源型城市的能耗增长进行因素分解,并针对不同区位、不同规模与不同发展阶段三种情况分别进行资源型城市能耗增长影响因素的差异分析。得出了研究结论:总体来看,对资源型城市能耗增长影响较大的因素是能耗强度与经济规模,其中能耗强度下降对能耗增长有明显的抑制作用,经济规模扩大对能耗增长有明显的推动作用,但能耗强度下降的抑制作用不足以抵减经济规模扩大的推动作用,导致能耗总量增加。人口密度增加和辖区面积扩大对城市能耗增长的贡献率较小,都只是微弱的推动作用。单个城市能耗增长的因素分解结果与总体情况较为一致,但不同城市之间存在差异。分区位看,越是落后地区,能耗强度下降对能耗增长的抑制作用以及经济规模扩大对能耗的拉动作用越强;分规模看,小城市的落后产能改进空间还没有得到充分利用;分资源开发阶段看,衰退型城市落后产能改进成效突出但能源利用效率依然较低,成熟型城市对落后产能改进空间的利用不足。最后有针对性地提出了相关政策建议:优化产业结构,转变经济增长方式,实现资源型城市从"粗放型增长"到"集约型发展"的转变;大力发展新能源,提高能源利用效率;对不同类型的资源型城市有针对性地实施节能降耗的分类指导;强化宣传教育,有效提高企业和居民的节能降耗意识。

Analysis on factor decomposition and differences of energy consumption growth of resource-based cities

Based on the data of 95 typical resource-based cities from 2004 to 2013 as samples,this article focuses on the cities'economic development,population growth and spatial expansion,considering energy intensity,economic scale,population density,and the jurisdiction area.LMDI method is used for energy consumption growth factor decomposition of resource-based cities,and differences between factors of their energy consumption growth are analysed according to different regions,scales and development stages.In conclusion,energy intensity and economic scale have a great influence on energy consumption growth of resource-based cities overall.The energy intensity decline has obvious inhibitory effect on growth of energy consumption,and economic scale expanding has obvious promoting effect.But the inhibiting effect decrease of energy intensity is weaker than the promoting effect of the expanding of economic scale to energy consumption growth.The increasing population density and expanding area make small contributions to energy consumption growth.The factor decomposition result of single city is more consistent with the overall situation,but there are differences between different cities.From the perspective of region,the more backward,the stronger the inhibitory effect of energy intensity decline is and the promoting effect of expanding of economic scale is.From the perspective of scale,down backward production capacity of room for improvement of small cities has not been made full use of.From the perspective of resource development stages,the recession cities do well in capacity improvement,but energy efficiency is still very low,maturation cities don't make full use of room for improvement of down backward production capacity.Finally,some targeted suggestions are given:Optimize the industrial structure and transform the economic growth pattern from'extensive growth'to'intensive development'.Develop the new energy and improve the efficiency of energy utilization.Give different guidance on saving energy and reduce consumption directed to different types of resource-based cities.Improve the consciousness of saving energy of companies and residents effectively by the enhancement of publicity and education.