国外学术界对《巴黎协定》的评价及履约前景分析

2016年《巴黎协定》的正式生效是全球环境治理的重要里程碑,是国际社会在应对气候变化的艰难进程中迈出的重要一步,标志着全球环境治理从此进入履约阶段。本文基于宾夕法尼亚大学智库与公民社会项目(TTCSP)公布的《2015年全球智库指数报告》,选取其中排名前十位的国际环境智库的研究报告和环境领域中代表性学者的相关论文,对国外学术界有关《巴黎协定》履约前景的分析进行了系统梳理,并对此做出简要评述。文章在肯定《巴黎协定》有力推进国际气候治理进程的同时,也指出在新的国际形势之下,尤其是在英国正式启动脱欧进程和特朗普新任美国总统后,其履约过程中更是存在着协定之内和协定之外的众多挑战和不确定性,本文的基本结论如下:首先,协定之内面临着协定缔约方国内批准程序上的挑战;国家自主贡献的实现与发展中国家能力建设;2℃温升目标的实现前景;审评和盘点的效力评估;碳市场机制能否有效运行。其次,协定之外面临着英国脱欧的潜在气候政策变化及影响;美国气候政策的可能变化及其影响。基于对以上智库报告和相关研究论文的分析,笔者对《巴黎协定》的履约前景得出几点看法:(1)正视国际气候合作的机遇与挑战;(2)对具体议题的落实需充满信心;(3)理性冷静看待英美气候政策的可能变化;(4)鼓励环境类国际组织之外的非国家行为体展开通力合作。对此,我们应正视履约中的挑战与不确定性,做好充分的应对之策,确保履约进程的顺利完成。总之,《巴黎协定》的履约前景不容乐观,国际社会任重道远。

Evaluation and performance prospect analysis of Paris Agreement by foreign academic circles

Paris Agreement's taking into effect in 2016 is an important milestone in the global environment governance and an important step in the difficult process of responding to climate change for the international society,which marks that the global environmental governance has entered the stage of implementation.Based on the 2015 Global Go to Think Tank Index Report issued by Think Tanks and Civil Societies Program (TTCSP) of University of Pennsylvania,this paper selects the reports of top 10 international environmental think-tanks and related papers of representative scholars in this field,gives a systematic introduction of performance analysis of the prospects for the Paris Agreement by foreign academic circles and makes a brief comment about this topic.At the same time of confirming the Paris Agreement's role of promoting international climate govemance,this paper also points out that under the new international situation,especially the official start of Brexit and Trump as the new US president.There are many challenges and uncertainty in the implementation process inside and outside the agreement.The basic conclusion is as follows:First,it faces challenges inside the agreement,including domestic approval process challenges for the parties of the agreement,realization of INDCs and the capacity building in developing countries,prospect of 2℃ temperature rise goal,effectiveness of review and assessment,and whether the carbon market can run effectively.Second,it faces uncertainty outside the agreement,potential climate policy change and influence of Brexit,and potential change of US climate policy and its impact.Based on the analysis of think-tank reports and related papers above,the authors conclude some thinking on the performance of Paris Agreement:① Face the opportunities and challenges of international climate cooperation.②Have confidence in the specific issues.③View the potential change of Britain and US climate policy rationally.④ Encourage the cooperation of non-government actors besides the international environmental organizations.Therefore,we should face up to the opportunities and challenges in the implementation process and make full preparation so as to ensure the smooth completion of the implementation process.In all,the performance prospect of Paris Agreement is not optimistic and the international community still has a long way to go.