外商直接投资对中国城市雾霾(PM_(2.5))污染的时空效应检验

本文利用了1998—2012年中国241个城市的空间面板数据对中国雾霾污染和FDI的区域分布特征及空间溢出效应进行经验考察,结合系统广义矩估计(SGMM)方法构建了动态空间面板模型,采用了Moran’s I和Geary’s C指数对中国FDI与雾霾(PM_(2.5))污染空间自相关性进行了全域和局域分析。结果发现:(1)雾霾(PM_(2.5))污染与FDI存在显著的空间正相关性,证明了雾霾(PM_(2.5))污染空间的溢出效应以及FDI的辐射效应的存在。同时FDI高值集聚区域一般是雾霾(PM_(2.5))高值集聚区,FDI低值集聚区域一般是雾霾(PM_(2.5))低值集聚区,表明一个地区的引资效果和雾霾(PM_(2.5))污染在地理上的集聚密切相关。雾霾(PM_(2.5))污染表现出显著的"叠加效应"和"溢出效应",说明中国雾霾(PM_(2.5))污染在空间维度、时间维度以及时空维度上分别表现出交叉、累积、持续的演变特征。(2)全样本下,FDI对雾霾(PM_(2.5))浓度的影响表现出增促效应。FDI存量每升高1%,雾霾(PM_(2.5))浓度升高0.011%。(3)分地区样本下,东部城市FDI存量每升高1%,雾霾(PM_(2.5))浓度升高0.001 9%;中部城市FDI存量每升高1%,雾霾(PM_(2.5))浓度升高0.018 3%;而西部城市FDI存量对雾霾(PM_(2.5))浓度影响不显著。上述实证结果说明中国雾霾污染存在着显著的空间依赖性和区域异质性,FDI对中国大部分城市的雾霾污染存在显著的增促效应。

Time-space effect test on foreign direct investment and PM2.5 pollution at city level

The paper inspects the regional distribution characteristics and spatial spillover effect by using the panel data of China's haze pollution in 241 Chinese cities during 1998-2012, establishes the dynamic spatial panel model with system of generalized moment estimator (SGMM) method, and analyzes the global and local spatial autocorrelation of FDI and haze pollution by using Moran's I and Geary's C index.The results shows: ① The FDI and haze (PM2.5) pollution shows significant spatial correlation, and proves spatial spillover effect and the radiation effect of the haze (PM2.5) pollution and FDI.At the same time, high value FDI is also the high value of PM2.5 concentration, and low value FDI is also the low value of PM2.5 concentration.The results indicates that investment effect and PM2.5 pollution in geographic agglomeration and economic geographical agglomeration are closely related within a region.'Super imposed effect' and 'spillover effect' play a significant role in PM2.5 pollution, which suggests that PM2.5 pollution is still in a state of intersect, cumulative and continuous spreading in China.②The FDI rises the haze (PM2.5) concentration in the full samples.An 1% increase in FDI stock, PM2.5 concentration will increase 0.011%.③An 1% increase in FDI stock, PM2.5 concentration will increase 0.001 9% in cities of eastern region.An 1% increase in FDI stock, haze (PM2.5) concentration will increase 0.018 3% in cities of middle region.FDI stock in cities of western region does not exert a significant impact on haze (PM2.5) concentration.The empirical research shows that the China's haze pollution has a significant feature of spatial dependence and regional heterogeneity, and FDI plays a significant role in increasing the haze concentration in most of Chinese cities.