中国资本回报率:考虑碳减排成本的新核算

对资本回报率进行绿色核算既符合当前绿色发展的新理念,同时也是判断我国经济增长可持续性的重要依据。使用超越对数生产函数估算1960—2014年碳排放的影子价格;利用Hall-Jorgenson租金公式测算剔除碳减排成本的中国资本回报率的动态演变趋势。对中国资本回报率重新估算克服了因忽略碳减排成本而导致的高估,估算结果更加科学可靠。研究结果:(1)中国碳排放的影子价格由1960年的56.34元/t上升到2011年的1651.69/t,根据影子价格计算的碳减排成本占GDP总量的份额年均为31%。(2)不考虑碳减排成本和税收因素的基础资本回报率变动趋势可以划分为三个阶段。1952-1983年为第一阶段,资本回报率在波动中由高位逐步回落。1984—2010年是第二个阶段,基础资本回报率保持平稳。2011年以来是第三个阶段,这一阶段中国的资本回报率呈台阶式下降趋势,特别是2012—2014年,税后的资本回报率已经难以抵补企业投资的机会成本。(3)考虑碳减排成本将导致资本回报率平均下降约12%。其中1960—1975年资本回报率呈下降趋势。1976—2008年资本回报率基本保持稳定,资本回报率平均值为15.2%。2009年以后,资本回报率则表现出逐年下降的趋势,2014年的估算值甚至降为-1%。本文仅考虑了碳减排成本,如果再考虑诸如二氧化硫等废气排放、废水与固废排放的成本后,绿色资本回报率的估算值将更低。建议:在当前的经济形势下,应实施激励企业技术创新以及减税(尤其是生产税)政策遏制资本回报率下降的趋势。另外,需要采取分阶段递增的环境规制政策,逐步实现企业环境外部成本的内部化。

Returns on capital in China: a new calculation on the basis of the consideration of the costs carbon emissions

Researh methods:It is not only accord with the new concept of green development,but also the important basis to judge the sustainability of economic growth.Using the logarithmic production function to estimate the shadow price of carbon emissions in 1960-2014;Using the Hall-Jorgenson rent formula to calculate the evolutionary trend of the MPK in China.The new research on the returns on capital overcomes the overestimation caused by ignoring the bad output,and the estimation result is more scientific and reliable.The study found that:(1) The shadow price of carbon emissions in China rose from 56.34 yuan per ton in 1960 to 1651.69 yuan per ton in 2011,and according to the calculation of the shadow price,the costs to reduce carbon emission accounted for 31％ of GDP annually (2) Without the consideration the cost of reduction of carbon emission reduction,the trend of the rate of the return to capital can be divided into three stages.The first phase is from 1952 to1983,the return on capital gradually declined in the high volatility.The second stage is from 1984 to 2010,the underlying the return on capital remained stable.The third stage began from 2011,this stage China return on capital has a stepped down trend,especially in 2012-2014 years,the return on capital after taxes has been difficult to compensating for the opportunity cost of company investment;(3) Considering the cost of carbon emission reduction will lead to the return on capital dropped by an average of about 12％.The return on capital from 1960 to 1975 showed a downward trend,and remained stable from 1976 to 2008,the average rate of the return on capital was 15.2％.After 2009,the return on capital showed a downward trend year by year,the estimated value in 2014 is-1％.This paper only considers the cost of carbon emissions.If we consider the cost such as sulfur dioxide emissions,waste water and solid waste emissions,the estimating of the return on green capital value will be lower.Policy suggestion:Under the current economic situation,we should implement incentive technology innovation and tax reducing policy(especially production tax) to curb the declining trend of the return on capital.In addition,we need to adopt environmental regulation policy step by step,and realize gradually the internalization of external cost of enterprise environment.