京津冀地区流动人口家庭化迁移的特征与影响机理

文章基于流动人口动态调查数据,使用空间相关分析、Multiple Logistic Regression等分析方法,对京津冀地区流动人口家庭化迁移的程度、空间特征及其影响因素进行了分析。结论显示:京津冀地区约65%左右的流动人口实现了家庭式迁移,一次性举家迁移已成为流动人口家庭迁移过程的主要模式;流动人口的家庭式迁移比重具有明显的空间差异,形成以北京、天津、张家口为轴线的高比重区域,其它地区则以地级城市为中心向外围递减,流动人口的家庭式迁移具有显著的空间依赖性;个体层面的性别、婚姻、年龄、流入时长等因素及家庭层面的家庭规模、家庭总收入、平均年龄、子女数量等因素均对流动人口的家庭迁移状态有显著影响,且流动人口的家庭式迁移表现出明显的基于经济发展水平的区域偏好。

Family migration and its influential factors in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

In the last three decades,population migration pattern has been significantly changed in China.In this study,based on the investigation data of population migration of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,it used methods such as spatial autocorrelation and multiple Logistic Regression to analyze the degree,spatial pattern and mechanism of family migration.The results showed that:first,65％ of the migrants in the region were family migration,which was dominated by the one-time family migration.Second,the percentage of family migration had significantly spatial differences;an obvious high percentage was observed in the city axis of the Beijing-Tianjin-Zhangjiakou and the percentage was reduced from regional central city to the periphery city in other places.The migration status had the remarkable spatial dependence.The study further revealed that individual characteristics of migrants including gender,marital status,age,length of residence,together with family characteristics of migrants involving with scale,income,family's average age,number of the children could significandy affected family migration.In addition,there was a positive correlation between the percentage of family migration and the regional level of economic development.