地方政府土地出让策略互动行为的检验及其影响分析

本文以山东省设区市地方政府土地出让行为作为研究对象,通过构建空间面板模型,从价格和数量两个维度,全面检验了地方政府商服、住宅、工业用地出让的策略互动行为,并利用空间计量工具,分析了地方政府土地出让策略互动行为的影响。研究发现:(1)山东省内地方政府商服、住宅、工业用地出让价格以及工业用地出让量存在显著的策略互动,地方政府的商服、住宅、工业用地出让价格以及工业用地出让量,不仅会受城市自身情况的约束,还会受邻近地区地方政府土地出让行为的影响,外在表现为你涨我跌、你增我减的反向变动格局;(2)由于未考虑策略互动,传统计量经济学非空间面板模型对地方政府土地出让行为影响因素的估计普遍存在偏误。对于商服用地出让价格,第三产业比重、人口密度的影响分别被低估了33.33%、13.08%;对于住宅用地出让价格,人口城镇化率、人均可支配收入的影响分别被低估了20.00%、9.98%,人口密度的影响被高估了32.34%;对于工业用地出让价格,人均外商直接投资的影响被高估了3.68%;对于工业用地出让量,第二产业比重、地均工业产值的影响分别被高估了13.95%、31.36%;(3)地方政府土地出让行为的影响因素普遍存在明显的空间溢出效应。对于商服用地出让价格,具有空间溢出效应的影响因素为人口密度;对于住宅用地出让价格,具有空间溢出效应的影响因素为人口城镇化率、人口密度、人均可支配收入;对于工业用地出让价格,具有空间溢出效应的影响因素为人均外商直接投资、地均固定资产投资;对于工业用地出让量,具有空间溢出效应的影响因素为第二产业比重、地均固定资产投资。

Test and influence analysis of local government land leasing strategic interaction

Taking cities of Shandong Province as research objects, by building the spatial panel model and applying spatial econometric tool, and through two perspective of quantity and price, this paper comprehensively evaluated strategic interaction of commercial, residential and industrial land leasing of local governments and analyzed the influence of the interactive strategy.The paper found that: ①Obvious strategic interaction existed in the price of commercial, residential and industrial land leasing price and in the industrial land leasing quantity, presenting as contradictory relationship of zero-sum game pattern.② Without considering of strategic interaction, the influence factors of the local government land leasing behavior had some deviation in general estimation models.For the commercial land leasing price, the effects of tertiary industry proportion and population density were underestimated 33.33% and 13.08% respectively.For residential land leasing price, the effects of population urbanization rate and per capita disposable income were underestimated 20.00% and 9.98%, and the effect of population density was overrated 32.34%.For industrial land leasing price, the effect of per capita foreign direct investment was overrated 3.68%.For industrial land leasing quantity, the effects of the second industry ratio and the industrial production per area were overrated 13.95% and 31.36%, respectively.③There were obvious spatial overflow effects in the local government land leasing behavior.Factors resulting in spatial overflow effects were population density for commercial land leasing price, population urbanization rate, population density and per capita disposable income for residential land leasing price, per capita foreign direct investment and net value investment per area for industrial land leasing price, secondary industry ratio and net value investment per area for industrial land leasing quantity.