生态文明阈值和绿值二步测度:指标-指数耦合链方法

拟破解生态文明测度和评价的现存难题:在指标选取方面,评价目标模糊,指标筛选的主观性强,缺乏结构化方法,导致指标泛化,与一般环境经济评价混淆;在测度标尺方面,无法确定生态文明阈值,对不同文明阶段用同一把尺子去衡量,导致一些非生态文明区域的排名反而靠前;在应用价值方面,综合指标值失去生态经济意义,只是一个抽象的排名数字,导致测度结果不便于理解和运用。为此,依据文明演化的共生理论创立指标-指数耦合链方法,用以导出生态文明测度的阈值和绿值二步指数。依次运用扎根理论法、PSIR及SEM结构模型、足迹家族法、Lotka-Volterra模型等工具,构建从生态文明的指标体系到二步指数的结构化耦合链。全过程始终聚焦生态文明的本质属性——产业与生态的互利共生性:以定性科学属性为出发点,以人与自然复合系统的结构模型为纽带,以生态文明阈值和绿值二步指数定量模型为归宿点。其中,阈值用产业受力指数、生态受力指数和共生度指数3项指数进行衡量,合称为阈值指数;而绿值用1项综合反映区域产业与生态的总量、共生程度和均衡程度的绿值指数进行衡量。据此进行区域生态文明的二步测度。第一步,基于阈值指数的阶段或资格判定:通过产业与生态的共生性,考量被测区域是否进入生态文明门槛,"未入门"区域处于哪一个文明阶段。第二步,基于绿值指数的水平判定:通过产业与生态的互利共生程度,考量"入门"区域的生态文明水平。研究表明,指标-指数耦合链方法不仅可以有效克服单纯指标体系综合法或指数函数法的缺陷和难点,而且能够将两者的长处结合起来。如此,不仅能够避免生态文明测度结果与物质文明"成正比"的弊端,而且能够通过从生态文明二步指数回溯至指标体系的逆向解耦,分析出导致生态文明问题的根本原因,便于提出切中肯綮的对策。

A method of indicator-index coupling chain for two-step measurement of the threshold value and green degree of ecological civilization

When measuring or evaluating ecological civilization,there are some difficulties as follows.In the aspect of indicators selection,evaluation objectives are vague,and the methods of indicators selection are subjective and unstructured,so that indicators are too miscellaneous and confused with common evaluation of environment and economy.In the aspect of measuring ruler,different civilization phases are measured with one ruler since the threshold of ecological civilization cannot be confirmed,so that some regions,which have not reached the phase of ecological civilization yet,get prior ranks.In the aspect of application,a synthetical indicator value integrated from numerous indicators loses their ecological and economical significances only as an abstract digit for ranking,so that the measurement results can not be understood and applied conveniently.To solve those issues,a new method of indicator-index coupling chain is developed in this paper according to the symbiotic theory of civilization evolution to derive two-step indexes of threshold value and green degree for measuring ecological civilization.A structuralized coupling chain is established from indicators system up to two-step indexes for ecological civilization measurement,by means of grounded theory,PSIR and SEM structured models,footprint family,and Lotka-Volterra model corresponded to each links of the chain respectively.The whole process focuses throughout on the essential attribute of ecological civilization,i.e.,mutualism between industry and ecology.It starts from the qualitative scientific attributes,links by the structured models of human-nature composite system,and ends up to the quantitative models of the two-step indexes of threshold value and green degree.The threshold value is represented by three indexes of force-on-industry index,force-on-ecology index and mutualism degree index,which are collectively called threshold value indexes.And green degree is represented by one index that synthetically reflects the total amount,symbiosis and equilibrium of industry and ecology in a region.Then,regional ecological civilization can be measured in two steps.The first step is phase or qualification judgment based on threshold value indexes,which represent the symbiosis types of industry and ecology,to confirm whether a region reaches the phase of ecological civilization,if not,which phase it belongs to.The second step is level judgment based on green degree index,which represent the mutualism degree of industry and ecology,to assess the development level of ecological civilization in a region that has entered into the threshold.The research shows that the method of indicator-index coupling chain not only can overcome the defects and difficulties of the single method of indicators system synthesizing method or index function method,but also can combine the advantages of the two methods.Therefore,not only the disadvantage that the measurement result of a region's ecological civilization is'proportional to'its material civilization can be avoided,but also the root causes of ecological civilization problems can be analyzed through inverse decoupling from two-step index back to indicators system,in order to put forward some effective countermeasures.