中国金属矿产的消费强度与回收潜力分析

从中国金属资源安全的角度来看,优化战略性金属矿产的供应结构,降低一次矿产的对外依存度,通过合理的政策导向有效地增加中国城市矿产开发效率,挖掘废旧金属的回收和利用潜力,是实现矿产资源安全保障的重要前提。本文以铁、铜、铝等三种金属矿产为例,采用美国、英国、法国、德国、日本等五个工业化国家及中国1949—2015年的面板数据,通过构建消费强度、回收密度和寿命分布函数分析了工业化五国金属消费和报废金属回收的历史规律,预测了2016—2030年中国三种金属消费和报废回收的变化趋势。结果显示:(1)五个工业化国家铁、铜、铝金属的消费强度经历了快速上升、平台缓降和较快下降的过程,而回收密度则经历了缓慢上升、较快增长和快速增长的三个阶段,在消费强度与回收密度的第三阶段呈现"脱钩"特征;(2)中国铁、铜、铝三种金属的消费强度大幅增加主要是集中在2000年以后,2015年我国铁、铜、铝的消费强度分别为540 kg/人、8 kg/人和23 kg/人,回收密度分别只有100kg/人、0.5 kg/人和3 kg/人,除铁、铝的消费强度进入平台下降期外,铜消费强度和三种金属回收密度仍处于增长的第一阶段;(3)预计2030年,中国铁、铜、铝的消费强度将分别为450 kg/人、9 kg/人和20 kg/人,仍处在平台缓慢下降阶段,回收密度将分别增加到220kg/人、3 kg/人和5 kg/人,回收密度与消费强度比例分别达到49%、33%和25%。通过对比可知,中国未来社会报废金属回收潜力巨大,如果能加以有效政策引导,加快回收利用,可大大缓解中国战略性金属的安全保障压力。

Analysis on the consumption intensity and recycling potential of metal resources in China

From the perspective of China'smetal resources security, the main prerequisite of mineral resources security policies are to optimize the supply structure of strategic metal mineral resources, to reduce the proportion of a high degree of dependence on foreign mineral supply structure, to increase China's urban mineral development efficiency through reasonable policy and to explore scrap metal recycling and utilization potential.This paper takes five industrialized countries (United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Japan) as an example to analyze the law of metal consumption and scrap metal recycling of iron, copper and aluminum through the construction of metal consumption intensity(CI), recycling density(RD) and life distribution function using the data from 1949-2015, and predicts China's consumption of bulk metal and scrap recycling trends.The results showed that: ①Five industrialized countries of iron, copper and aluminum CI experienced the evolving process of rise, slowdown and rapid decline, and RD went through three stages of slow rise, rapid economic growth and rapid growth.CI and RD showed'decoupling' feature in their third stages.②China's mass consumption of iron, copper and aluminum were concentrated after 2000.China's iron, copper and aluminum CI were 540 kg per capita, 8 kg per capita and 23 kg per capita, while RD were 100 kg per capita, 0.5 kg per capita, 3 kg per capita in 2015.Except that consumption of steel and aluminum wasin the platform period, others were still in a slow growth stage.③China's CI will reach 450 kg per capita, 9 kg per capita and 20 kg per capita, while RD will reach 220 kg per capita, 3 kg per capita, 5 kg per capita in 2030.RD and CI ratio will be 49%, 33% and 25% respectively.The above comparison shows that China's future social scrap metal recycling potential will be great, which can greatly ease the pressure on the security guarantee of bulk metal, if government uses effective policy guidance to speed up the recycling.