全面放开二孩政策背景下人口增长对资源环境的影响和需求分析

2015年底,我国全面放开了二孩政策,势必对我国的人口总量和增长态势产生深刻影响,进而影响我国的资源需求和环境压力。在采用队列元素法预测全面放开二孩后我国总人口及各省(市、自治区)人口的基础上,运用城乡人口比增长法预测未来城镇化水平,本文依据这两种预测结果系统探讨人口政策变动对我国资源消费、环境污染的定量预测和具体影响。假定未来的人均资源环境消耗量保持现状不变,按照预测的未来人口总量和增量,得出人口增长对我国资源环境的需求变动。通过计算新增的资源环境需求量,对比需求总量与我国的资源环境供给能力,进一步分析人口增长对资源环境各方面的压力大小。研究发现:全面放开二孩政策后,我国的粮食、生活用能源、生活用水、城乡建设用地的需求量和生活污染物排放量均逐年递增,但变化速率有所差异。为满足未来人口增长所产生的需求,粮食和能源的自给率明显降低,未来将需要更多地依赖进口。全国的供水能力和保障水平急需提高,其中北京、河南、江苏、青海、四川的现状供水能力与未来生活用水需求差距较大。各省建设用地需求差异明显,吉林、湖北、山东、四川、江苏、湖南、新疆、广东、黑龙江、贵州等省市的城市建设用地新增需求量将快速释放,但已有的建设用地储备无法满足预测需求。生活污染物的治理压力加大,环境保护与治理能力应该继续加强。

Demand forecasting and impact of population growth on resources andenvironment by implementing universal two-child policy

Universal two-child policy has been implemented since the end of 2015 in China.This policy is anticipated to bring in a significant increase in the total population, with profound influences on the resources and environment in the future.This paper analyzes the changing dynamics of urban and rural population and the urban and rural construction land from 2005 to 2013, and forecasts urban and rural population from 2016 to 2030 at national and provincial scale using a double log linear regression model.Drawing upon the results of these two predictions, the impact of the population policy change on Chinese resources consumption and environmental pollution are predicted quantitatively.Given the future total population maintaining current levels on resources consumption and environmental emission, the additional demand of resources and environment demand for the new population is forecasted and compared against the capacity on supply side.The findings are as follows: after implementing the universal two-child policy, China's grain, energy consumption, domestic water demand, urban and rural construction land and pollutant emissions are projected to increase at different rates across provinces.To meet the needs arising from future population growth, food and energy self-sufficiency rate will be significantly reduced in the future, while relying more on imports.Stability of the water supply needs to be improved, especially in Beijing, Henan, Jiangsu, Qinghai and Sichuan where the gap in future domestic water demand is comparatively larger.Construction land demand will also differ significantly across provinces.Whilst the demand for new construction land will be quickly released in Jilin, Hubei, Shandong, Sichuan, Jiangsu, Hunan, Xinjiang, Guangdong, Heilongjiang, Guizhou, some other provinces may fail to meet this demand.Environmental protection and associated governing capability are in urgent need of upgrade not least due to the increasing pressure of pollution.