三峡库区移民贫困致因的精准识别与减贫路径的实证研究

随着我国经济发展和扶贫成效的显现,老区、山区、民族地区和移民库区等集中连片的特殊贫困区已经成为我国当前精准扶贫的主战场。由于面临生产资料匮乏、生态环境恶化和地质灾害频发等恶劣环境,库区移民贫困问题已成为新时期扶贫攻坚最难啃的"硬骨头"。因此,开展库区移民贫困致因的精准识别与减贫路径研究具有重要的现实意义。基于对库区移民贫困现状的扎根理论分析,本文提出了分析农户生计的新框架。在此基础上,本文以三峡库区26个县(区)为研究对象,随机抽取4县(区)796户移民作为样本,首先,采用灰色关联分析法和熵权法对库区移民主要致贫因子进行挖掘;接着,采用PLS-SEM模型分析影响库区移民生计状况的关键因子和关键路径。研究表明:(1)三峡库区移民贫困现象仍很严重,患病、劳动能力弱和失地是移民致贫的三大主因。三峡库区仍有175.94万人生活在贫困线以下,三大致贫原因依次是:因病致贫26.49%、因劳动能力弱致贫22.10%和失地致贫21.65%。(2)心理资本可有效促进移民其他资本效能的发挥,对生计状况存在着显著的直接效应和间接效应。(3)在影响生计状况的四类资本中,人力资本对库区移民生计状况影响最大。基于以上发现,本文提出了实现库区移民精准脱贫的政策建议:(1)国家应高度重视三峡库区移民贫困问题,大力开展精准扶贫;(2)增加心理干预措施以提高移民心理资本存量,帮助移民摆脱心理贫困;(3)开展劳动力技能培训,提高库区移民人力资本水平。

Empirical study on the poverty identification and poverty reduction paths of immigrants in the Three Gorges Reservoir Region

With the rapid development of China's economy and poverty reduction,revolutionary,mountainous,ethnic minority and immigration reservoir areas have become the main battle field of poverty alleviation.With lack of means of production,ecological environment deterioration and frequently geological disasters,poverty in the reservoir has become the toughest issue in the new era.Therefore,it is of vital importance to solve the poverty issue promptly.Based on the analysis of grounded theory on immigrants,we firstly proposed a new framework of immigrants' livelihoods.With a total sample of 796 households in 4 counties from 26 counties in the Three Gorges Reservoir,we firstly adopted the gray correlation and entropy analysis methods to analyze the major factors of poverty.Secondly,we used the PLS-SEM method to analyze the key factors and key paths affecting immigrants' livelihoods.The results show that:① rural poverty in the Three Gorges Reservoir is still serious,with 1.759 4 million rural immigrants still under poverty,where sickness (26.49％) is the main factor for poverty,followed by weak labor (22.10％) and land scarcity (21.65％).② Psychological capital can effectively promote the performance on other capitals,with a significant direct and indirect effect on livelihood.③ Among the four capitals influencing their livelihoods,human capital has the highest influence.Finally,this paper proposes corresponding policy recommendations for precision poverty eradication for the Three Gorges Reservoir region.The Chinese government should attach great importance to poverty in the Three Gorges Reservoir region.Psychological intervention should be enhanced to increase the psychological capital to help the immigrants move out of poverty.Skills training on labors should be implemented to improve the human capital of immigrants.