规划管制下土地发展权受限的多情景测度:数量与价值

在统筹推进国土空间规划及用途管制的背景下,揭示土地发展权受限的数量及其价值,对于完善中国空间治理体系、解决不平衡不充分发展尤其是区域差异问题具有重要的理论和现实意义。文章以湖北省为"生态资源优势区"代表性省份,首先运用柯布-道格拉斯(C-D)生产函数模型测算各生产要素在农业与非农业部门中对经济增长的弹性以及土地资源在两部门的边际收益,揭示土地发展权受限的客观现实和成因;然后基于缩小湖北省与"经济发展优势区"经济发展差距的不同情景,测度2009—2018年湖北因处于生态资源优势区而使土地发展权受限的数量与价值。结果显示:(1)土地要素投入对湖北省经济增长具有重要影响。2009—2018年,湖北省非农部门经济增长仍依赖土地要素投入,且土地要素对经济增长的贡献难以被其他生产要素替代。(2)高额的机会成本是土地资源由农业部门向非农部门转移的重要潜在驱动力。2009—2018年,湖北省非农部门的土地边际收益是农业部门的17.03~44.14倍,且呈逐年递增趋势,规划管制的存在导致了土地发展权受限。(3)规划管制背景下,对受限的土地发展权进行补偿具有必要性和可行性。在经济发展水平差距缩小10%~100%的不同情景下,2009—2018年湖北省土地发展权受限数量处于0.53×104~5.35×104hm2之间,对应的价值量占同时期"经济发展优势区"总GDP的比重较低,为0.02%~0.19%。基于此,应开展土地发展权受限补偿的制度建设,从土地发展权产权确认和利益分配机制改革两方面量化和落实土地发展权,并以对土地发展权的底线补偿情景为起点逐步提高土地发展权补偿水平,直至实现完全补偿。

Multi-scenario assessment of land development rights restricted under planning regulation:quantity and value

In the context of the comprehensive implementation of national territory spatial planning and its use control in China,revealing the quantity and value of restricted land development rights has great theoretical and practical significance for improving the spatial governance system and solving the issue of unbalanced and insufficient development,especially regional differences.Taking Hubei Province,an‘area with abundant ecological resources’,as the representative province,this paper firstly used the Cobb-Douglas(C-D) production function to measure each production factor’s elasticity to the economic growth in agricultural and non-agricultural sectors and calculate the marginal benefits of land resources in these two sectors to clarify the reality and causes of restricted land development rights.Then,in different scenarios of narrowing the economic development gap between Hubei Province and the‘economic development advantage area’,this paper measured the quantity and value of land development rights restricted from 2009 to 2018 in this province located in the‘area with abundant ecological resources’.The results showed that:(1) Land input had an important impact on economic growth of Hubei Province.From 2009 to 2018,the economic growth of the nonagricultural sectors in Hubei Province still depended on land input,and its contribution was difficult to be replaced by other production factors.(2) High opportunity cost was an important potential driving force for the transfer of land resources from agricultural sectors to non-agricultural sectors.From 2009 to 2018,the marginal revenue of land in non-agricultural sectors was 17.03~44.14 times of that in agricultural sectors in Hubei Province,and it was increasing year by year.The existence of planning regulation led to the limitation of land development rights.(3) In the context of planning regulation,it was necessary and feasible to compensate for the restricted land development rights.In different scenarios where the gap in economic development levels was reduced by 10% to 100%,the quantity of restricted land development rights in Hubei Province was between 0.53×104~5.35×104 hm2 from 2009 to 2018,and the corresponding value accounted for a relatively low proportion of the total GDP of the area with high economic development,which was 0.02%~0.19%.It is suggested that relevant government departments should carry out system construction for compensating the restricted land development rights,quantify and realize land development rights from two aspects including the confirmation of such rights and the reform of benefit distribution mechanism,as well as gradually improve the compensation level of land development rights from the bottom-line compensation scenario to full compensation scenario.