我国土地用途管制之耕地保护绩效的定量研究--以山东省为例

本文采用虚拟变量模型。以软件Eviews为分析工具。以农业大省山东省为例。首次对土地用途管制在耕地保护中的绩效进行了定量研究。结果表明，实施土地用途管制后。每1万元基本建设投资可节约占用耕地0．00195hm^2。1998-2002年。山东省共节约建设占用耕地80430．48hm^2。但GM(1，1)预测结果表明。到2010年，山东省耕地保护形势仍然非常严峻。据此文章提出了政策建议。

QUANTITATIVE STUDY ON CULTIVATED LAND PROTECTION'S EFFECT OF THE SYSTEM OF CONTROL OVER THE PURPOSES OF USE OF LAND IN CHINA--A CASE OF SHANDONG PROVINCE

First, this paper uses the model of dummy variable and Eviews to study quantitatively the cropland protection's effect of the system of control over the purposes of use of land in Shandong province. Results indicate that implementing the system of control over the purposes of use of land can lead to saving 0.00195 hm 2 of cropland every capital construction investment of 10,000 yuan in Shandong province. The total cropland saved is 80430.48 hm 2. Then this paper constructs a model of GM (1,1), and uses it to predicts the quantity of capital construction investment and cropland consumeption. The result shows that it will still be very severe in the situation of cropland protection in Shandong Province by 2010. So it is necessary to raise further the efficiency of cropland protection's effect of the system of control over the purposes of use of land.In the end the writer put forward some suggestions about how to improve the efficiency of cropland protection.