“Total risk of death”—Towards a common and usable basis for consequence assessment

Assessment of the risk of exposure to a “dangerous dose” (DD) is the basis of the UK Health and Safety Executive's HSE's current risk assessments for land-use planning (LUP). Some years ago, a hybrid approach using both DD and “significant likelihood of death” (SLOD) was proposed as an improvement, but was not adopted.Here, an alternative, weighted multiple threshold approach, provisionally titled “total risk of death” (TROD), is described. TROD improves the comparability of assessed risks from diverse hazards. This is achieved by first performing assessments for more than one threshold of consequence (such as DD assessment and SLOD assessment). The predicted risk for each threshold is then combined into a single risk value (at a specified location) by weighting the contributions to risk according to the predicted consequences for each threshold.This paper makes the case, in principle, for using TROD and illustrates how TROD values are constructed.TROD overcomes some of the objections that have barred progress to more widespread use of risk assessment, it is more comparable between different installations and hazards than DD, it is more sensitive than SLOD and more adaptable than probits (which can introduce a false sense of precision). It could support more direct comparison with other risks (e.g. everyday risks and transport risks) in the future.The appropriate “weightings” for addition of risks predicted for different consequence thresholds (contributing to TROD) are discussed here. A three-threshold scheme for evaluation of TROD is described. The thresholds are DD (assumed to approximate to a dose leading to ～1% fatal consequences or LD₁), LD₁₀, and SLOD (～LD₅₀).TROD has been used in HSE sponsored research and in HSE's exploration of societal risks.