江苏省人口城乡结构差异的多尺度研究

利用"全国第四、五、六次人口普查"等数据,基于"多尺度"分析框架,综合运用总体差异测度指数(标准差、锡尔指数及其分解)、马尔可夫链、ESDA等方法,分析1990~2010年江苏省不同尺度人口城乡结构差异的时空动态演化。结果表明:(1)20a来,江苏省人口城乡结构无论绝对差异还是相对差异性在各尺度上均呈缩小趋势,且前10a大幅缩小、后10a缩小幅度减缓。相对差异值及其缩小程度排序均从大到小依次为县域、市域、区域。主要受地区发展基础、增长极的带动能力及范围、政府政策侧重以及人口迁移机制等多种因素差异性的影响。由于三大区域间通过人口流动、交通、产业、资源等的联动效应,因而三大区域间差异的缩小对全省差异缩小的贡献最大。(2)前10a人口城乡结构类型转移概率波动性大,后10a趋向稳定。苏南各市区存在高水平"俱乐部趋同"现象。(3)虽然从区域尺度上看,苏南、苏北两极分化有所缓和,但从县域小尺度上来看,苏北大部分县域与苏南不同县域之间的差距依然较大,这与实际相符合,因此小尺度的自相关分析更符合实际,且小尺度两极分化严重。县域尺度冷、热点地区具有典型的核心边缘结构、南北空间分异显著,涓滴效应逐渐显现,南北差异有所减小。最后提出在"两带一路"背景下针对不同尺度人口城乡结构合理发展的建议。

MULTI SCALE STUDY ON THE DIFFERENCES OF POPULATION AND RURAL STRUCTURE IN JIANGSU PROVINCE

Urban and rural population structure refers to the ratios of urban and rural population to the total population. Changes in the proportion of urban and rural population are not only the results of social and economic changes, but also important factors affecting socio-economic development. Urban and rural population structure is mainly measured by the level of urbanization. Studying urbanization disparities helps to fully understand the disparities of development extent as well as socio-economic contacts within and across the regions, so that it can provide decision bases for the various regions with "local conditions" development. Therefore, the level of urbanization differences has attracted more and more attentions in China. Using the fourth, fifth and sixth national census data, the "multi-scale" analysis framework, the overall difference measure index (including standard deviation, Theil index and its decomposition), Markov chain, ESDA correlation analysis and so on, we analyzed the temporal and spatial dynamics of population structure differences between urban and rural on different scales in Jiangsu Province from 1990 to 2010. The results showed:(1) In the 20 years, both absolute differences and relative differences of urban and rural population structure in Jiangsu Province showed a narrowing trend at different scales, which was sharp in the first 10 years, and then showed slowing down in the later 10 years. Relative differences and the degree of narrowing decreased from county to city and region. The main influencing factors are the differences of regional basic development, driving forces and scopes of growth poles, the focuses of government policies and population migration mechanisms and other factors. Narrowing of the differences between the three regions is the biggest contribution to narrowing of all the province's difference, mainly due to the linkage effect between the three major regions through population flow, transportation, industry, resources and so on. (2) The transition probabilities of population structure types between urban and rural areas were large and fluctuant in the first 10 years, while they tend to be stable in the later 10 years. The process of regional convergence in urban of Southern Jiangsu has been globally characterized by "convergence club" since 1990, and this trend was sharpened and presences at high levels. (3) On the regional scale, polarization between South Jiangsu and North Jiangsu has eased, but from the point of view of the county scale, the gaps between most counties in the North Jiangsu and South Jiangsu are still large, which showed that small scale polarization was serious. Therefore, autocorrelation analysis of small-scale conforms to the reality. From the point of view of the county scale, hot spots and cold spots show the typical core-periphery structure and the significant North-South spatial disparities. Trickle-down effect is gradually revealed, North-South differences are narrowing. Finally, in the background of "Two Belts and One Road", some suggestions can be put forward.