中国城市土地消耗强度的时空格局与收敛性分析

基于中国31个省份2000~2012年共13年的面板数据,分析了中国城市土地消耗强度的时空格局,并引入空间效应对其收敛性进行了检验。研究结果表明:1中国城市土地消耗强度的变化趋势是发散的,中、西部地区在缩小与东部地区经济差距的过程中,其经济增长是建立在高土地资源消耗的基础上的;2从时空格局看,城市土地消耗强度有收敛的可能,但随时间序列的移动,收敛迹象逐渐模糊;3空间模型估计结果表明城市土地消耗强度存在空间溢出效应,某省份城市土地消耗强度下降受到其他省份城市土地消耗强度下降的影响;同时其空间自相关性受到未被观测的解释变量的冲击,从侧面反映出除土地要素投入外,资本、劳动力和科技等要素投入,对提高单位建设用地的经济效益同样具有明显的影响。研究成果为促进土地资源节约集约利用提供科学依据。

SPATIAL-TEMPORAL PATTERN AND CONVERGENCE OF URBAN LAND CONSUMPTION INTENSITY IN CHINA

Based on the panel data of 31 provinces of China from 2000 to 2012, this paper analyses the spatial-temporal pattern of the urban land consumption intensity and utilizes the spatial econometric analysis method to test the convergence of urban land consumption intensity of China. The results indicate that the trend of the urban land consumption intensity of China is divergent. In the process of narrowing the economic gap between different regions, the economic development of the central and west regions is based on high land resource consumption. From the view of spatial-temporal pattern, the urban land consumption intensities of three regions have the trend of convergence while, with time going, the global convergence gradually disappears. The spatial model manifests the spatial spillover effect of urban land consumption intensity, which means the decrease of urban land consumption intensity of one province will be affected that of other provinces. Meanwhile, the spatial autocorrelation of urban land consumption intensity will also be influenced by some variables that are not observed. It illustrates that the influence of capital, labor, science and technology etc. is as important as that of land in promoting the economic benefits of unit construction land. The research results provide scientific basis for improving the economical and intensive use of land resources.