华中地区种植业生产碳排放驱动因素分析

农业是温室气体排放的第二大人为因素源,探寻农业生产碳排影响因素,对实现农业节能减排有重要意义。以中国粮食主产区华中地区为背景,综合运用IPCC(2006)推荐的方法估算华中地区1994~2013年种植业生产的碳排放量,基于Kaya恒等式、灰色关联模型对华中地区种植业生产的碳排放驱动因素进行识别并探讨主要影响因素的贡献。结果显示:(1)华中地区1994~2013年种植业生产碳排放呈上升趋势,2013年达到了11 257.63万t CO2-eq。其中,河南省、湖北省、湖南省的种植业生产碳排放增幅分别为101.29%、24.88%、21.73%;(2)在过去的20 a中,种植业生产效率、种植业结构、农业劳动力规模对农业生产碳排放具有一定抑制作用,而农业经济发展则促进了种植业生产碳排,具有一定的推动作用;(3)近20 a的农业发展过程中,华中地区种植业生产碳排放最主要的贡献因子是种植业结构,其次是农业从业人口、种植业产值、人均农用物资消耗量。

INFLUENCING FACTOR DECOMPOSITION OF PLANTING CARBON EMISSION IN CENTRAL CHINA

Agriculture is the second artificial source of GHG emission. Therefore, it's of significance to reduce agricultural carbon emission and to explore the factors of agricultural carbon emission. In this paper, the method of IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories is used to calculate the planting carbon emissions of central China from 1994 to 2013. Based on the Kaya model and the grey system theory model we identified the drives of planting carbon emission and the relationship between carbon emission and its influencing factors. The result showed that:(1) there was an increasing trend year by year of planting production carbon emission in central China, the planting carbon emission reached 11257.63 million tons of carbon dioxide in 2013, an increase of 101.29%, 24.88%, 21.73% compared to 1994 in Henan, Hubei and Hunan province, respectively. (2) In the past 20 years, the factors of efficiency, structure and labor scale can restrain carbon emission. But the factors of economic development is urge carbon emission, it played an important role in planting production carbon emission. (3) In 20 years of agriculture development, the dominant factors is planting structure, and the next is population of agriculture worker, the value of planting, and per capita agricultural material consumption, respectively.