环鄱阳湖区分区土地利用景观格局变化模拟研究

依据水环境约束力的大小,将环鄱阳湖区划分为核心、边缘和外围3个影响区。以该地区2005~2010年间土地利用情况为基准,通过构建CA-Markov-Logistic模型模拟2015年该地区土地利用格局情景,并采用景观格局指数进一步分析3个影响区土地利用景观格局变化趋势。研究表明:(1)从土地利用类型变化来看,覆盖环鄱阳湖区约82%土地面积的耕地和林地将有较大幅度的减少,而城建用地所占比重将大幅上升,对环鄱阳湖区的开发在逐渐加快;(2)从土地利用影响力来看,地类分布概率与人口城市化率、生活城市化率以及经济城市化率的空间分布有着一定的相关关系;(3)从模拟结果来看,环鄱阳湖区核心区耕地范围将缩小而水体范围将扩大,边缘区其他建设用地和农村居民点面积增加,外围区水体范围将大幅缩减,土地景观破碎化程度依次从边缘区-外围区-核心区的顺序下降,表明对鄱阳湖保护的作用正在显现,整个土地利用景观格局取向更为合理。

SIMULATION OF LANDSCAPE PATTERN CHANGE OF POYANG LAKE AREA PATITION

In accordance with the strength of water environment constraint, we divided the Poyang Lake area into core, marginal and peripheral zone. In this paper, we tried to predict urbanization and make simulation pattern of cities around the Poyang Lake in the three buffer zones in 2015. After interpreting the Landsat images of the study area, we built up multiple data fusion database, and then statistically described the present situation of land utilization in the study area. Based on Logistic regression we got land suitability atlas. The use of Markov model generated the state transition probability matrix of land use during 2005 to 2010. Under both the restrictions, let Cellular Automata processed research area natural developmental scene simulation. Based on the 2005-2010 land use pattern, the paper combined the CA, Markov, Logistic model and use this model to achieve the future land use simulation scenarios of Poyang Lake area, then use Landscape Indexes to analyze the change trends of landscape pattern of Poyang Lake area which under the constraints of water environment. The results showed that: (1) The cultivated land and woodland covering almost 82% area of district around Poyang Lake will degrade substantially, while the proportion of urban land will rise sharply on Poyang Lake area, along with its gradually accelerating economic development. (2) The probability of land type distribution has a certain relationship with population urbanization rate, life urbanization rate and economic urbanization rate. (3) From the simulation results, the cultivated land of the core area in Poyang Lake area will be smaller and it will expand the scope of water bodies, in marginal zone the construction land and rural residential area increased, the water bodies range in the peripheral area will be substantially reduced, which is reflected in the pattern of land use change on the landscape manifested as the land landscape fragmentation degree decline according with the order: the marginal area-the peripheral area-the core area, suggesting that the protective effect in Poyang Lake is on the emerging, the entire land use pattern orientation is more reasonable.