切尔诺贝利核电站事故后果模式估算国际比对

介绍我国参加国际原子能机构（IAEA）组织的“切尔诺贝利核电站事故后果模式估算国际比对”中采用的模式及其估算结果与实测值以及与其地各国估算结果的比较。提出土壤表面沉积量与农作物可食部分核素浓度估算模式（属半动态模式，其余模式采用国内通用的静态模式）。比较结果表明，对事故后当年的浓度预测结果与实测值符合较好，对事故后第２年及更长时间的预测结果明显偏高，有待改进。

An international comparison of model predictions of accident consequencies for Chernobyl nuclear power plant

This paper briefly presents a model which is adopted in an international comparison of model predictions of accident consequencies for Chernobyl nuclear power plant.It is also given in the paper that a comparison between different model predictions and between model predictions and observed values.A semi-dynamic model is developed to estimate the ground deposition and nuclides concentration in the edible part of grain or vegetable.The comparison results show that the predicted values are agreeable well to those observed 1986,but obviously over-estimated in second and third years after accident.Therefore,this model should be further improved.