祁连山空中云水资源开发利用效益预测与评估

利用社会效益、经济效益和生态效益3 个方面25 项指标, 建立了空中云水资源开发利用综 合效益的评价体系。同时对祁连山区人工增雨对径流的影响作了预估, 在此基础上, 对祁连山云水 资源开发利用后山前走廊各流域水资源状况及社会经济状况进行了合理的预测。最后, 选用其中 11 项指标, 并运用层次分析法对祁连山空中云水资源开发利用效益进行了评价。结果表明: 祁连山 空中云水资源开发利用对山前走廊的社会、经济、生态等效益均显著增加, 祁连山区通过人工增雨, 降水增加10%时, 河西地区综合效益将提高5.3%, 降水增加20%时, 综合效益提高12.5%。

Beneficial Prediction and Assessment of Cloud and Air Water Resource Exploitation over the Qilian Mountain

Qilian Mountain is famous mountain system in China and has a great many of glaciers,from which runoff is very important to the piedmont corridor area of the mountain.In addition,there is a water vapor transportation belt in this region,which brings abundant cloud and air water resources.Thus,cloud and air water resource exploiture project in the region is very meaningful and beneficial.In order to assess the synthetic benefit of cloud and air water resource exploitation,reasonable index system including 25 indexes was constructed in this paper.It involved social,economic and ecological effects.Then,choosing 11 indexes and using AHP(analytic hierarchy process) method,each index weight was evaluated and synthetic assessment model was estab-lished clearly. In this paper,on the basis of Kang's result about the impacts of precipitation enhancement on runoff flow from the mountain in the northwest arid region,the water resource and socio-economic conditions after cloud and air water resource exploiation over the Qilian Mountain were predicted rationally.Finally,the synthetic benefit of cloud and air water resource exploitation over the Qilian Mountains was assessed integrally.The results showed that the social,economic and ecological benefit all would be improved remarkably after the cloud and air water resource exploitation over the Qilian Mountain.When precipitation increased by 10%,the synthetic benefit would be improved by 5.3%,and when precipitation increased by 20%,the synthetic benefit would be improved by 12.5%.