石油井下作业井喷风险预警分级模型研究

结合石油井下历史事故资料和井下高危作业风险辨识资料,依据SMART原则,从企业应用角度,建立井喷风险预警分级评价指标体系,评价指标包括固有风险频率、事故严重度、监控与监测措施3方面;对各指标给出相应的权重和分值,并在风险原理的基础上设计风险评价分级数学模型,建立石油井下作业井喷风险预警分级标准。根据分级模型得到的风险分级结果可以对石油井下作业井喷风险进行有针对性的防范和控制,避免井喷事故的发生。

Warning Ranking for Blowout Risk of Down Hole Operation

Based on the historical data of the accidents and the risk-identification materials of high-risk operation in down hole operation,and according to the principle of SMART,the evaluation index system is decided on the base of corporation's applying,and 3 categories are included in the evaluation index system: frequency,severity,and controlling & monitoring measures.Weight and grade for each index are decided;the risk evaluation mathematical model for the warning ranking is designed based on risk principle,and the warning ranking standard is established.Targeted prevention and control measures can be taken to avoid blowout accident according to the results of risk ranking by using the risk evaluation mathematical model in the down hole operation.