基于情景的建筑火灾风险分析方法及CFAST软件应用

提出基于情景的建筑火灾风险分析方法,它通过3个步骤即起火分析、确定未来情景集和确定风险分析结果来计算建筑物火灾风险大小。从一个建筑单体出发,通过过程模拟的手段得到其未来可能会出现的各种"情景",计算各"情景"中的指标,通过综合分析得到风险分析的结果。并通过算例说明了基于情景的火灾风险分析方法的实现过程。最后通过分析北京市近几年的火灾历史数据、设定影响火灾发展的各种因素和CFAST软件模拟的手段,得到建筑火灾年期望损失率作为风险的度量值。

Scene-based Risk Analysis of Building Fire and Application of CFAST Software

This paper proposed a scene-based risk analysis methodology to building fire,which can be carried out following 3 steps,i.e,ignition analysis,building of future scenario set and comprehensive analysis of adverse outcomes of all scenarios.As for a specific building,the scene-based fire risk analysis is to firstly choose some principal fire-related indicators to build the possible future fire scenarios of building,and then uses the simulation technology to obtain the adverse outcome of all scenarios,and finally calculates an expected loss value as the measure of fire risk.An example is carried out,in which the fire historic data of Beijing is analyzed,the factors that may affect the fire growth are fixed,the CFAST software is applied,and finally the expected loss value of a building is acquired.