基于城市地铁实证分析的突发事件风险发展趋势评价模型研究

为了更好地完善突发事件风险评价过程,运用风险发展趋势评价模型对风险评价过程进行补充。采用Daniel趋势函数、灰色理论和模糊理论建立突发事件的风险发展趋势评价模型,并对广州市地铁运营风险发展趋势进行实证分析。结果表明,从执行过程看,该模型改善了突发事件风险评价的范围和评价结果的准确度,评价过程具有一定的可行性和客观性,可以推广应用到各类突发事件的风险发展趋势评价中。通过实证分析,该城市的地铁运营风险当前处于临界状态以下,可以保持当前的运营状态,与该城市的地铁运营状况相符合,对于单个子系统,乘客和员工素质系统目前处于临界状态,对整个地铁系统的安全性有较大影响,城市居民和员工素质需要进一步提高。

Emergency Risk Development Trend Evaluation Model Based on Urban Subway Empirical Analysis

In order to better improve the emergency risk assessment process,the risk development trend evaluation model was applied to risk development trend evaluation.Based on Daniel trend function,gray theory and fuzzy theory,an emergency risk evaluation model was built,and the metro operation risk in Guangzhou was studied using the model.The result shows that firstly,the model improves the range of emergency risk evaluation and the accuracy of evaluation results from the implementation process,which can be applied to risk development trend assessment of various emergencies;secondly,the implementation results show the city's metro operation risk is currently in critical state and the subway system can maintain current operation state,which is consistent with the city's metro operation condition.For the single subsystem,passenger and staff quality system that is in the above critical state,it has a great influence on the safety of the metro system;the quality of urban residents and employees must be further improved.