城市天然气管网预警系统的研究与实现

随着城市天然气管网密度加大,由于天然气管理手段滞后导致的天然气泄漏事故急剧增加。基于GIS技术并结合燃气管网定量风险分析(QRA)模型,提出利用定量风险分析模型实现管网风险预警的方法。结合C#+ArcEngine编程技术,开发城市天然气管网预警系统,实现管网失效率分析、燃气事故扩散模拟、火灾及爆炸模拟、个人风险等值线绘制、社会风险分析等功能,能够进行区域性事故后果预测、个人风险和社会风险计算、安全性评价及应急预案编制等项工作。

Research and Realization of Urban Natural Gas Pipeline Network Pre-warning System

With the density of urban natural gas pipeline increasing,the leaking accidents also increase rapidly due to its hysteretic management.Based on GIS technology and QRA model,an applicable method making use of QRA model in GIS is proposed to realize the early risk warning for the pipeline.Combining with C# and ArcEngine technology,the early warning system for urban natural gas pipeline network is developed,which possesses the functions,such as analyzing the failure rate of the pipeline network,simulating the diffusion of a leaking accident,a fire or a blast accident,protracting an isoline for the individual risk and analyzing the societal risk.With this pre-warning system,the severity of an accident,the individual and societal risk in the certain area can be calculated,so as to provide basis for safety management and emergency plan compilation.