核电厂核事故应急疏散研究

根据我国法规、标准与美国核管委对核电厂核事故应急疏散的要求,考虑我国核电厂特殊的厂址条件与社会环境,分析核事故应急疏散的可行性。通过应急疏散行为研究、厂区的交通需求估计和路网分析,对不同情境,考虑核事故应急疏散的特殊问题,分别采用人工容量分析与宏观仿真模拟得到应急疏散时间。针对某核电厂,给出核事故应急疏散分析的一般步骤、方法与计算结果。对宏观仿真模型的主要参数进行灵敏度分析,找出影响应急疏散时间的主要因素,提出缩短应急疏散时间的针对性措施。

Study on Emergency Evacuation for Nuclear Power Plants

Considering the specific conditions and social environment of nuclear power plant sites in China,the feasibility for nuclear accident emergency evacuation is analyzed according to the safety requirements of emergency evacuation for nuclear power plants of US NRC and China's laws and standards.Through studying the emergency evacuation behaviors,traffic requirements and road net around nuclear power plants,specific problems under different condition are considered.And Manual Capacity Analysis and Macro-Simulation Estimation Model are respectively used to get the emergency evacuation time.With some nuclear power plant as an example,the general steps and methods for emergency evacuation analysis and the calculation results are given.Through making a sensitivity analysis of the main parameters of Macro-Simulation Estimation Model,main factors affecting emergency evacuation are found out,and suggestions for shortening evacuation time are proposed.