重要基础设施的依赖性模型及应用

把无效果投入产出模型(IIM)引入到重要基础设施的相互依赖性模型研究中,模型中的参数估计通过问卷调查从各领域专家处获得,并使用三角模糊数对该估计值进行修正,最终分别用依赖性指标和影响增益指标评价相互依赖性造成的影响;采用专家调查法和三角模糊数估计模型的参数值,构建了重大自然灾害中重要基础设施的相互依赖性模型。将模型应用于中国2008年南方冰冻雨雪灾害中重要基础设施的依赖性研究中,比较得到受影响最大的设施系统和依赖性最大的设施系统,为防灾减灾和有侧重地进行重要基础设施的保护和完善提供了依据。

An Interdependency Model for Critical Infrastructure and Its Application

By introducing inoperability input-output model (IIM) into the research of critical infrastructure interdependency model and using Delphi method and the triangular fuzzy number to estimate and revise the parameters needed in the interdependency model,an interdependency model for critical infrastructure in major natural disasters is constructed,which uses interdependency indicator and influence gain indicator to assess the effect caused by the interdependency of critical infrastructure.The model is applied to the interdependency study of critical infrastructure in snow disaster in south China in 2008,and the most affected and the most dependent facility system are obtained by contrast.This method provides basis for disaster prevention and reduction and critical infrastructure protection.