基于Delphi法和最小判别的应急能力逐级评价模式研究

针对目前应急能力评价模式中没有充分考虑最差的关键性指标,而该指标往往又决定着应急工作的成败这一问题,设计基于Delphi法和最小判别的应急能力逐级评价模式。以突发事件应急管理周期为基础,建立应急能力评价的三级指标体系,首先通过Delphi法确定第三级指标的评判以及相应的权重;然后以第三级指标为基础计算第二级评价指标的评价结果;最后,应急能力的最终评判和第一级指标的评判分别由下级指标通过最小判别法确定。实证表明,该模式具有系统性、科学性和可操作性,它充分考虑了关键指标中的最差指标对应急能力的影响,既有利于应急部门充分重视应急管理的薄弱环节,又有利于逐级查找影响应急能力的具体因素。

A Stepwise Assessment Model for Emergency Capability Based on Delphi Method and Minimum Distinction

Considering that the present assessment model of emergency capability don't fully take into account the worst key index which may determine the whole effect of emergency management,a stepwise assessment model for emergency capability is designed based on Delphi method and minimum distinction.According to the emergency management stages,a three-level assessment index system of emergency capability is established.Firstly,the results and weights of the third-level indexes are decided by Delphi method,and then,the results of the second-level indexes are calculated from the results of the third-level indexes.Finally,the results of emergency capability and the first-level indexes are calculated from the corresponding next level indexes by minimum distinction.The result of exemplification shows that the model is systematic,scientific and operational.In this model,the effect of the worst index of the key assessment indexes on the emergency capability is fully taken into consideration,so it would help emergency department not only to take the weakness of emergency management seriously,but also to find the true reasons that reduce emergency capability.