| 基于最优加权的道路交通事故组合预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 郑建湖.基于最优加权的道路交通事故组合预测模型[J].中国安全科学学报,2009,19(7). |
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| 作者姓名： | 郑建湖 |
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| 作者单位： | 闽江学院汽车系,福州,350108 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对各种单一灰色预测方法存在的局限性,建立了一种基于最优加权的灰色组合预测方法。根据我国道路交通事故的发展情况,建立了GM(1,1)模型和Verhulst模型相结合的组合预测模型,运用最优加权法确定了组合预测模型的权重系数。利用2001—2007年我国道路交通事故数据死亡人数数据,对建立的灰色组合预测模型进行了预测。预测结果表明,组合预测模型比单一的GM(1,1)模型和Verhulst模型具有更高的预测精度。
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| 关 键 词： | 组合预测 交通事故 Verhulst模型 GM(1 1)模型 最优加权 |
A Combined Prediction Model for Road Traffic Accidents Based on Optimal Weighted Method |
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| ZHENG Jian-hu.A Combined Prediction Model for Road Traffic Accidents Based on Optimal Weighted Method[J].China Safety Science Journal,2009,19(7). |
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| Authors: | ZHENG Jian-hu |
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| Abstract: | Aimed at solving the limitations in various single grey forecasting methods,a combined forecasting model of road traffic accidents based on optimal weighted method was put forward. According to the characteristics of traffic accident in China,a model combined GM(1,1) and Verhulst was established,and weight coefficients of combined forecasting model were determined by optimal weighted method. A case was given to verify the effectivity of proposed model with the traffic accident data from 2001 to 2007 in China. The results demonstrate that the forecast accuracy of combined model is better than that of GM(1,1) model and Verhulst model. |
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| Keywords: | combined forecasting traffic accident Verhulst model GM(1 1)model optimal weighted |
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