山东省建设占用耕地与经济增长的脱耦分析

利用山东省1997-2008年的相关数据,分析了耕地建设占用与经济增长之间脱耦的时间过程和原因。结论认为:1997-2008年间,山东省耕地面积经历了由上升到下降的变化过程,2004年是增减的拐点。2004-2008年间,建设占用成为山东省耕地流失的主要驱动因子。2001-2004年与2005-2008年,山东省耕地建设占用与经济增长均表明发生了明显的脱耦现象,且有加速发展的趋势,山东省经济增长逐渐摆脱了对耕地资源的依赖。相对1997-2000年,2001-2004年间山东省经济增长对耕地资源占用的压力呈减轻趋势,属于相对脱耦;与2001-2004年相比,2005-2008年间山东省建设占用耕地与经济发展成为绝对脱耦型。2005-2008年间,山东省耕地占用与经济增长的脱耦主要得益于第三产业的快速发展。因此,继续实施严格的耕地保护策略,可能并不会对经济发展有较大的影响。

Decoupling Evaluation Between Cultivated Land Occupation and Economic Growth in Shandong Province

Based on the official statistic data from 1997-2008,decoupling evaluation between cultivated land occupation and economic growth of Shandong Province was analyzed.This paper can be concluded as:1) The area of cultivated land of Shandong Province increased from 25,670 ha in 1997 to 33,930 ha in 2004,and then dropped to 13,530 ha in 2008.Construction occupation became the main driving factor of cultivated land loss between 2004-2008.2) During the periods 2001-2004 and 2005-2008,obvious decoupling between cultivated land occupation and economic growth in Shandong Province took place,and grew fastly.3) Compared with the period 1997-2000,relative decoupling was achieved between the economic development and cultivated land occupation in Shandong during 2001-2004;and compared with the period 2001-2004,absolute decoupling was achieved during 2005-2008.4) During 2005-2008,the main cause for decoupling between cultivated land occupation and economic growth could be attributed to the rapid development of the tertiary industry.So,the strict farmland protection system will unnecessarily affect economic development.