基于STIRPAT模型天津减污降碳协同效应多维度分析

基于STIRPAT模型,从排放总量、减排量和协同效应系数这3个维度定量分析了天津市减污降碳协同效应.结果表明,天津市大气污染物和温室气体的主要排放源均为工业源,大气污染物和温室气体的Pearson相关系数为0.984;人口总数、城镇化率、地区生产总值、能源强度和二氧化碳排放强度是影响天津市减污降碳协同效应的重要因素;天津市2011年和2012年大气污染物和温室气体协同增排,协同效应系数分别为0.18和0.17;2013~2014年和2018~2023年大气污染物减排且温室气体增排,协同效应系数均小于0,减污降碳不具有协同效应;2015~2017年和2024~2060年大气污染物和温室气体同时减排,协同效应系数范围为2.74~8.76.天津市具备在2024年进入减污降碳协同增效阶段的条件,天津市推动减污降碳协同增效最关键的是严格控制温室气体排放总量,持续推动能源强度和二氧化碳排放强度的下降,合理控制人口总数、城镇化率和地区生产总值.

Multi-dimensional Analysis of the Synergistic Effect of Pollution Reduction and Carbon Reduction in Tianjin Based on the STIRPAT Model

Based on the STIRPAT model, this study quantitatively analyzed the synergistic effect of pollution reduction and carbon reduction in Tianjin from three dimensions:total emission, emission reduction, and synergy coefficient. The results showed that the main emission sources of air pollutants and greenhouse gases in Tianjin were industrial sources, and the Pearson correlation coefficient of air pollutants and greenhouse gases was 0.984. The total population, urbanization rate, gross regional product, energy intensity, and carbon dioxide emission intensity were important factors affecting the synergistic effect of pollution reduction and carbon reduction in Tianjin. In 2011 and 2012, Tianjin''s air pollutants and greenhouse gas emissions increased synergistically, and the synergistic effect coefficients were 0.18 and 0.17, respectively. From 2013 to 2014 and from 2018 to 2023, the air pollutant emission reduction and greenhouse gas emission increased, the synergistic effect coefficient was less than 0, and the pollution reduction and carbon reduction had no synergistic effect. In 2015-2017 and 2024-2060, air pollutants and greenhouse gas emissions were predicted to be reduced at the same time, with a synergistic effect coefficient ranging from 2.74 to 8.76. Tianjin had the conditions to enter the synergistic stage of pollution reduction and carbon reduction in 2024. The most important things for Tianjin to do to promote the synergy of pollution reduction and carbon reduction were to strictly control the total amount of greenhouse gas emissions, continue to promote the reduction in energy intensity and carbon dioxide emission intensity, and reasonably control the total population, urbanization rate, and regional GDP.