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| 黄河三角洲人工草场群落土壤盐分动态集成预报模型及其应用 | |
| 引用本文： | 郭洪海,董晓霞,孔令安. 黄河三角洲人工草场群落土壤盐分动态集成预报模型及其应用[J]. 应用与环境生物学报, 2000, 6(5): 400-405 |
| 作者姓名： | 郭洪海 董晓霞 孔令安 |
| 作者单位： | 山东省农业科学院土壤肥料研究所济南 250100 |
| 基金项目： | 国家“九五”科技攻关项目(No:96-004-01-06)、国家自然科学基金重点项目(No:49631040) 和国家自然科学基金项目(No:49771005)联合资助 |
| 摘 要： | 提出了以ＧＭ（１，１）模型拟合发展的趋势、傅里叶变换撮周期分量ＡＲ（ｐ）模型模拟随机过程的集成预报模型，并用于黄河三角洲人工草场群落土壤盐分的定量研究中，经理论和应用检验证明：该模型能以较高的精度模拟或预报土壤盐分在较长时期内的动态变化过程，方法简单，计算工作量小，并优于传统的单一预报模型。 |
| 关 键 词： | 人工草场群落 土壤盐分 集成预报模型 |
| 修稿时间： | 1999-08-16 |
INTEGRATED PREDICTION MODEL OF DYNAMIC PROCESS FOR SOIL SOLUBLE SALTS IN ARTIFICIAL GRASSLAND COMMUNITY AND ITS APPLICATION IN THE YELLOW RIVER DELTA |
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| GUO Honghai,Dong Xiaoxia,KONG Linan. INTEGRATED PREDICTION MODEL OF DYNAMIC PROCESS FOR SOIL SOLUBLE SALTS IN ARTIFICIAL GRASSLAND COMMUNITY AND ITS APPLICATION IN THE YELLOW RIVER DELTA[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied and Environmental Biology, 2000, 6(5): 400-405 | |
| Authors: | GUO Honghai Dong Xiaoxia KONG Linan |
| Abstract: | In this paper, the integrated prediction model of dynamic process for soil soluble salts is proposed. GM(1,1) model is used to simulate the trend, fourier transformation to abstract the periodic component and AR( p ) model to simulate stochastic process, and it is applied to study soil soluble salts quantitatively in artificial grassland community. It is proved by theory and practice that this model is of higher precision on simulating and predicting dynamic process of soil soluble salts for a longer period of time. Moreover, it is simple and small for the task of calculation, and it is better than the traditional single prediction model. Fig 2,Tab 3,Ref 8 |
| Keywords: | Yellow River Delta artificial grassland community soil soluble salts integrated prediction model |
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