| 福建省工业废气排放量的因子分析与灰色预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 郑敏敏,肖秀钦,陈庆华,张江山.福建省工业废气排放量的因子分析与灰色预测[J].环境科学与管理,2012,37(4):4-7. |
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| 作者姓名： | 郑敏敏 肖秀钦 陈庆华 张江山 |
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| 作者单位： | 福建师范大学环境科学与工程学院,福建福州,350007 |
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| 基金项目： | 福建省自然科学基金（No.2009J01020） |
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| 摘 要： | 随着工业化进程的不断加快,工业化带来了经济腾飞,同时也带来了环境问题。工业排放的废气量逐年上升,对大气环境质量构成巨大威胁。如何有效的管理工业废气的排放,首先就要求在未来短时间范围内对工业废气的排放量做出正确的预测。运用灰色关联度方法,定量分析了福建省工业废气排放量的影响因子。利用灰色系统理论建立了工业废气排放量的GM(1,1)模型,并与多元线性回归模型对比,证实该模型具有一定的可行性和使用性,为福建省工业废气的分析预测和治理提供依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 工业废气 关联度分析 灰色预测 GM( )模型 多元线性回归 |
Factor Analysis and Grey Prediction on Total Industrial Off-Gas Emission of Fujian Province |
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| Zheng Minmin,Xiao Xiuqin,Chen Qinghua,Zhang Jiangshan.Factor Analysis and Grey Prediction on Total Industrial Off-Gas Emission of Fujian Province[J].Environmental Science and Management,2012,37(4):4-7. |
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| Authors: | Zheng Minmin Xiao Xiuqin Chen Qinghua Zhang Jiangshan |
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| Institution: | (College of Environmental Science and Engineering,Fujian Normal University,Fuzhou 350007,China) |
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| Abstract: | Industrialization brings economic development but results in environmental problems.The amount of industrial off-gas increases year by year,which posed a great threat to the atmospheric environment.Hence,it is necessary to predict the discharge amount.Based on statistical data,grey correlation method was used to study the key factors affecting the off-gas amount quantitatively.Grey dynamic model GM（1,1） and multiple linear regression analysis were established to predict the amount of industrial off-gas.Through the comparison,GM（1,1） model was proved to be feasible and suitable for predicting the amount of off-gas.The method and results of this study provide reference for management and planning of Total Emission of Industrial off-gas（TEIO） of Fujian Province. |
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| Keywords: | industrial off-gas grey correlation method grey prediction GM（1 1） model multiple linear regression |
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