海南岛水稻气候生产潜力和人口承载量的估算

本文从海南岛自然优势出发,采用联合国粮农组织《产量与水的关系》中介绍的气候生产潜力的农业生态方法: 计算了海南水稻的气候生产潜力,从海南岛水稻生产和人口的现状出发,采用灰色系统中的GM(1,1)预测模型:计算和探讨了当前和未来水稻生产的人口承载量问题。试图揭示水稻生产的现状、问题和发展前景,为全岛水稻的产、销、购提供科学依据。

AN ESTIMATION OF CLIMATIC POTENTIAL OF RICE AND POPULATION CARRYING CAPACITY IN HAINAN ISLAND

On the basis of the natural superiority of Hainan Island, this paper using the agroecological method of climatic potential productivity which FAO introduced in "the Relation between Production and Water":calculated the climatic potential productivity of rice. And on the basis of the present situation of the production of. rice and the population of Hainan Island, it using the GM(1, 1) forecast mold in the grey system:calculated and investigated the problem of population bearing capacity of the production of rice at present and in the future. It tries to reveal the present situation, problems, and prospects of development of the production of rice to provide a scientific basis for production, consumption, and purchase of rice in the Island.