中国旅游业绿色发展效率时空演变特征及影响机理

绿色发展是旅游业可持续发展理念的重要组成部分,是旅游业奉行以人为本、生态至上和全面发展的新价值观。在梳理旅游业绿色发展概念及内涵基础上,构建旅游业绿色发展效率评价体系,运用SBM-Undersirable模型、核密度估计、空间马尔科夫链等方法,探讨2008—2018年中国31个省（市、自治区）旅游业绿色发展效率（TGDE）时空演化特征及影响机理。研究发现：（1）时间和空间变化方面,TGDE总体处于中等偏下水平,时间上呈“W”型变化形态,“下降—上升—调整”阶段特征显著;空间呈“东—中—西”递减分布,内部差异为西部地区>东部地区>中部地区,低、中、高效率由“金字塔”向“菱形”结构转变,高效率地区集中于东部沿海,中等效率多分布于中西部地区,低效率位于胡焕庸线两侧。（2）动态演进方面,TGDE始终存在两极分化现象,但区域协调性逐步增强,具有较强平稳性,难以实现跨越式发展,空间向上转移省份比较集中,以中西部为主,向下调整省份较少,且存在明显的空间溢出效应,溢出影响具有不对称性。（3）影响机理方面,总体上,经济水平、产业结构、政府规制、教育水平和旅游资源影响因子与TGDE间存在显著的正向关系,对外开放程度的作用不显著,但各因子的影响程度、作用机理及条件具有较强地域性。

Spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and influencing mechanism of green development efficiency of tourism industry in China

Green development is an important part of the concept of sustainable development of the tourism industry, which is the new value of people-oriented, ecological supremacy and comprehensive development of the tourism industry. Based on a thorough review of the concept of tourism green development, we construct an evaluation system of tourism green development efficiency by using SBM-Undersirable, the Coefficient of Variation, Kernel Density analysis and Spatial Markov Chain methods to depict a full picture of China's spatio-temporal patterns and impact mechanism of tourism green development efficiency (TGDE) from 2008 to 2018. Our results demonstrate that: (1) TGDE was generally below the average level, and temporally it shows a pattern of "W"-shaped fluctuated growth, with significant characteristics of "decline-rise-adjustment" stage. TGDE decreased from eastern to central and further to western region and the internal differences in the western region > eastern region > central region. In addition, the low, medium and high efficiency in various provinces had an obvious change from a "pyramid" to a "diamond" structure. Among them, the high efficiency areas are concentrated in the eastern coastal areas and the medium efficiency areas are mostly distributed in the central and western regions, while the low efficiency areas are located on both sides of Hu Huanyong Line. (2) TGDE has always been polarized but the regional coordination is gradually enhanced and it has strong stability, so it is difficult to achieve leapfrog development. In addition, provinces with TGDE spatial upward transfer are relatively concentrated, mainly in the central and western regions, and there are fewer provinces with downward adjustment. TGDE has obvious spatial spillover effect, that is to say, the high efficiency provinces release positive spillover effect, while low efficiency ones release negative spillover effect and the probability of upward transfer increases when they are adjacent to high efficiency types, and the spillover effect is asymmetric. (3) In terms of impact mechanism, it is found that there is a significant positive relationship between TGDE and economic level, industrial structure, technological innovation, government regulation, education level and tourism resource endowment through the panel data regression model and the impact of the degree of opening to the outside world is not significant, but there is high regionality in the impact degree of influence, mechanism of action and conditions of each factor.