基于人粮关系的“一带一路”沿线国家土地资源承载力时空格局研究

“一带一路”沿线国家是全球重要的人口集聚区。以人粮关系为主线,从全域到国别研究了1995—2017年沿线国家土地资源承载力时空格局。结果表明：研究期内,（1）沿线国家耕地总量与人均耕地量分别降至6.96×10⁸hm²和2.23亩/人,分别约为全球水平的50%和80%,约80%的国家人均耕地在下降;（2）承载力增至45.95亿人,近90%的国家在提高,但西亚及中东多数国家在下降;（3）地均承载力增至90人/km²水平,约为全球水平的1.5倍,孟加拉国、匈牙利、越南超300人/km²;（4）人粮关系从超载转向临界超载,粮食盈余国家增多,主要为耕地面积广的产粮大国。半数国家土地仍超载,多为气候干旱区与岛屿国家。研究有助于深化与沿线国家的粮食安全合作和提高项目建设布局的科学性。

Spatio-temporal patterns of the land carrying capacity in the Belt and Road region based on human-cereals relationship

The countries along the Belt and Road are major population agglomeration areas in the world. Focusing on the relationship between humans and cereals, we examined the spatio-temporal patterns of the land resource carrying capacity during 1995-2017 from the whole region and national scale. The results showed that, during the study period: (1) The total and per capita cultivated land of the countries along the Belt and Road dropped to 696 million hectares and 0.15 hm²/person, which are respectively about 50% and 80% of the global level. The per capita cultivated land is declining in around 80% of the countries. (2) The carrying capacity of land resources increased to 4.60 billion people. The carrying capacity of nearly 90% of the countries was increasing, but that of most countries in West Asia and the Middle East declined. (3) The average carrying capacity of land resources increased to 90 persons/km², which is 1.5 times at the global level; in Bangladesh, Hungary and Vietnam, it exceeded 300 persons/km². (4) The human-cereals relationship had shifted from overloading to critical overloading. Countries with cereals surpluses increased, especially large cereals-producing countries with much cultivated land and better production conditions. The land has still overloaded for half of the countries in the Belt and Road, and these countries are mostly located in arid climate or islands zones. The results will contribute to strengthening cooperation between countries in the Belt and Road region for food security and improving the scientific nature of project construction layout.